080
AXPZ20 KNHC 110844
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N74.5W to 06N79W to
09N85W to 06N92W to 09.5N105W to 05.5N121W to 05N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 08.5N
E of 96W, and from 03N to 10N between 120W and 140W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 03S to 17.5N between 98W and
109W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NW to N winds continue across the waters of
Baja California as a broad ridge persists west of the area.
Seas with these winds are mostly 5 to 6 ft in NW swell, except 7
ft across the waters NW of Isla Guadalupe. Light to gentle
northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas
southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to
near 17N, where seas are 5 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell. Winds
inside the Gulf of California have shifted W to SW across much of
the basin at 10 kt or less, with a few areas of moderate westerly
gap winds. Seas 1 to 2 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in SW swell in the
southern portions. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail
elsewhere to the east and southeast to Tehuantepec. Seas are 5 to
6 ft primarily in SW swell.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over the
offshore waters between 101W and a trough extending from
17N104W to 11N107W, but are within 60 nm of the coast of from
Colima to western Guerrero. Recent satellite altimeter data
showed locally rough seas to 8 ft across the far outer waters,
likely due to strong gusty winds from this persistent area of
convection.

For the forecast, a broad ridge west of the area has begun to
weaken across the local area tonight, and will weaken slightly
Mon through Wed morning as weak low pressure moves into Southern
California. Moderate NW swell will gradually subside across the
Baja waters through Wed. A new area of high pressure will build
southeastward across the region Wed night through Fri night,
leading to mostly fresh NW to N winds and building seas across
the Baja waters. Fresh to strong gap winds will return to
Tehuantepec Mon night, then become strong to near gale-force
winds Tue through Thu night as the pressure gradient tightens
over southeastern Mexico in the wake of cold front.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Satellite scatterometer data around midnight indicated mostly
light to gentle winds over the offshore waters of Central America
and southward to Ecuador, with fresh NE to E gap winds across
the Papagayo region extending to near 88W. Winds have likely
increased fresh to strong downwind of Papagayo in recent hours.
Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail across and downwind of
the Gulf of Panama to 06N. Combined seas over these waters are
generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell, except for higher seas to 8 ft
downstream of Papagayo. SW swell dominating area seas in recent
days has begun to subside, with recent satellite altimeter data
showing seas 6 to 7 ft south of the equator and east of about
100W to near the coast of Peru.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring across the
offshore waters from 01.5N to 08.5N and E of 90W, and extends to
near the coast of SE Costa Rica, eastern Panama and southern
Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh easterly gap winds will pulse to fresh
to strong speeds at night across the Papagayo region through
early Thu, then at fresh speeds Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected
through the week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
remain active across the waters E of 85W through Tue night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered north of the area near
32N131W and extends a broad but weakening ridge south and
southeastward to near 110W. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is generally maintaining moderate to fresh trades from
07N to 24N west of 126W, and from 10N to 20N between 115W and
126W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed NW and E swell are over this
area south of 21N and west of about 120W. Gentle to moderate
winds with seas of about 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere north of about
11N per recent satellite altimeter data, and a couple of SoFar
Ocean Spotter buoy reports from the northwest portion of the
area. Convection over this area is associated with the monsoon
trough and ITCZ as described above under the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section.

For the forecast, the ridge will begin to weaken as the high
center drifts northward today through Tue, ahead of an
approaching weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure
gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, north of
the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W Mon through Tue, with
seas of 6 to 8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the
upcoming week. New high pressure will begin to build across the
region from the NW early Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade
winds S of 20N and W of 125W, with seas building 8 to 9 ft. Rough
seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far
southwestern waters S of 02N to 120W, and will gradually spread
eastward in coverage to near 100W Mon and Mon night before
subsiding Tue into Wed.

$$
Stripling