665
AXPZ20 KNHC 141527
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave that was previously analyzed near 96W near the
Gulf of Tehuantepec has been absorbed by the localized troughing
there.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Nicaragua near 12.5N87W
to 1008 mb low pressure near 12N92.5W to 14N100W to 07.5N121W to
08.5N130.5W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N130.5W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between
77W at the coast of Colombia and 81W, from 03.5N to 08N between
83W and 89W, and from 08.5N to 15N between 86W and 99W. Similar
convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 137W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough extends from SW Arizona southwestward to across the
northern Gulf of California while broad high pressure is W of
Baja California. A tight gradient associated to the trough is
producing fresh to strong SW winds over the northern Gulf waters.
Fresh to near gale-force northerly gap winds are ongoing in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec with 1008 mb low pressure SE of the Gulf
along the monsoon trough and high pressure just to the NW of the
Gulf over mainland Mexico. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or
weaker under the broad high pressure. Seas are 5-7 ft W of 110W
and offshore Baja California in NW swell, and 4-6 ft E of 110W in
primarily S-SW swell, except 5-8 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
with the assistance of wind waves. In the Gulf of California,
seas are 4-6 ft in the northern portion, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf
of California will diminish to moderate to fresh by this
afternoon as the gradient weakens. Northerly swell will spread
through the waters W of Baja California tonight into Wed in the
wake of a weakening cold front that will move across Baja
California and the Gulf of California. Winds will freshen behind
the front offshore Baja California through mid-week as high pres
builds in. Winds then will weaken there by the end of the week
into the weekend as the gradient slackens. Fresh to strong
northerly gap winds will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through at least mid-week. Meanwhile, a broad low pressure
located near the coast of southern Mexico and portions of Central
America is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or over the weekend. Regardless of development, expect
increasing winds and building seas. This system is expected to
move little during the next few days, but a slow northwestward
motion near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico is
expected by the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A broad low pressure located near the coast of southern Mexico
and portions of Central America is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described above.
Associated winds are moderate to fresh offshore Guatemala and
western El Salvador. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere.
Seas are 4-6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell across the waters.

For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of the low, and a tropical depression could
form late this week or over the weekend. Regardless of
development, expect increasing winds and building seas. This
system is expected to move little during the next few days, but a
slow northwestward motion near the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico is expected by the weekend. Winds may also
freshen S of the monsoon trough as it lifts northward through the
remainder of the week, which will build seas slightly.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is just N of 30N with fresh to strong associated
winds just N of 30N. Ahead of the front, associated northerly
swell of 8-11 ft is already building into the N-central waters N
of 28N between 122W and 132W. A broad ridge is across the waters
N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ ahead of the front. Winds across
the open waters are mainly moderate or weaker. Seas are mainly
4-7 ft away from the northerly swell in a wide variety of mixed
swell.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward across
the waters N of 20N through Thu while gradually decaying. Winds
will locally freshen behind the front as high pres builds in.
Associated northerly swells of 8-11 ft will continue to propagate
southward through mid-week before decaying. Farther S, weak low
pressure is likely to form along the monsoon trough today between
115W and 120W through Wed night. Looking ahead, a reinforcing set
of NW swell may arrive by the end of the week into the weekend in
the NW and W-central waters keeping seas to rough.

$$
Lewitsky