777
AXPZ20 KNHC 171004
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly named Tropical Storm Erick is centered near 11.9N 93.6W,
or 390 nm southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico at 17/0900 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Latest satellite imagery continues to show deep
convection becoming concentrated primarily north and near the
system center. This convection is appearing to be developing into
banding-type features, and over the system pattern is gradually
becoming more symmetrical with time. The noted convection within
the forming banding features consists of the numerous moderate to
strong intensity-type from 11N to 15N between 90W and 95W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in
the N quadrant and from 11N to 14N between 94W and 95W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the system
center in the SE quadrant. Peak seas have build to around 14 ft
(4 m). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during
the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected
to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wed night.
Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become
a hurricane on Wed. Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall
totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum totals of 15 inches,
across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero and
coastal sections of Guatemala. This rainfall may produce life
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals
of 6 inches are possible across interior portions of Southeast
Mexico, El Salvador, interior Guatemala and the Mexican states
of Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Swells generated by Erick are
expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from
your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Five-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave extends from the
Caribbean Sea southward along 83W to across the Panamanian/Costa
Rica continuing south to 05N. It is moving westward at around 10
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
180 nm west of the wave from 07N to 12N. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 05N to 07N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia west-
northwest to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border and continues
westward to 11N89W. It resumes southwest of Tropical Storm
Erick near 10N98W and continues northwestward to 13N110W,
and southwestward to 08N125W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues to 08N135W and to beyond 08N140W. Aside from the
convection related to newly named Tropical Storm Erick, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 11N
between 86W-89W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
south of the ITCZ west of 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on
recently named Tropical Storm Erick.

Elsewhere, the remnant low of Dalila is analyzed with a pressure
of 1010 mb near 19N112W. Isolated showers are possible within 60
nm of the low in the SE quadrant. An overnight ASCAT pass
highlighted gentle to moderate winds near the low. Moderate to
fresh northwest to north winds are from 18N to 20N between 113W
and 114W along with seas of 5 to 6 ft. High pressure is present
west of Baja California with moderate or weaker winds. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds are over the Gulf of California along
with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5
ft over the southern part of the Gulf. Mostly moderate seas
prevail across the offshore waters. In the Gulf of California,
moderate seas are over the southern Gulf while slight seas are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, other than areas impacted by Tropical
Storm Erick, the remnants of Dalila will continue to spin down
and dissipate over the next couple of days while associated winds
and seas diminish. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of
the area will support pulsing moderate to fresh northwest to
north winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters
through the rest of the week. Rough northwest to north swell
will build over the Baja waters through the rest of the week.
The swell will be reinforced by a new set of northwest to north
starting Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail
across the Gulf of California today. Winds will be mainly
moderate or weaker elsewhere during the period.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for details on recently
named Tropical Depression Five-E.

Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere from offshore
Colombia northward, with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands,
with moderate to rough seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, other than Tropical Depression Five-E, which
may bring increasing winds and seas as well as heavy rainfall
described above, moderate to fresh winds will remain offshore
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the next few days.
Winds will be moderate or weaker offshore Colombia northward,
except pulse to mostly fresh speeds in the Papagayo region
starting Thu morning. Meanwhile, moderate seas off Ecuador will
prevails through the rest of the week. Moderate seas will be
mainly offshore Colombia northward through Wed, except higher
near Tropical Storm Erick, subsiding afterward.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
recently named Tropical Depression Five-E.

Broad and weak ridging extend from a high well northwest of the
discussion area to across the open waters north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ and west of the remnants of Dalila centered near
19N112W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open
waters, both north and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ,
locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are
mainly moderate across the open waters in mixed southerly and
northerly swells.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink
slightly southward through the week. Moderate to fresh northeast
to east winds over the northwest part of the area will expand
in coverage through the end of the week.  A slight increase in
seas is expected across the northern waters east of 130W through
Thu as new north to northeast well moves into the regional
waters, spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the
week.

$$
Aguirre