982
AXPZ20 KNHC 150959
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds funneling
through the Chivela Pass will continue to support gust to gale-
force NNE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Thu
night. Peak seas in the Tehuantepec region during this period
will range between 11-12 ft. Winds will quickly diminish below
gale-force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the
Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, a second gale-force gap wind event
is forecast for the region by Sun evening.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N90W to 05N100W to
06N100W to 03N111W. The ITCZ continues from 03N111W to 05N130W
and beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to
06N E of 90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details
on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A weak pressure gradient in the region due to the presence of a
surface trough along western Mexico and a second trough just west
of the Baja California Peninsula along 130W continue to support
light to gentle winds across the Baja and SW Mexico offshore
waters. Seas in these two regions remain moderate in the 4-6 ft
range and in NW swell. Northerly winds associated with a surface
trough over the far western Gulf of Mexico continue to funnel
through the Chivela Pass, supporting gust to gale-force winds in
the Tehuantepec region where peak seas are 8-10 ft. Otherwise,
high pressure over the Great Basin of the United States is
supporting fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of
California, with seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast, gust to gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region will continue through Thu night. Winds will
quickly diminish below gale-force early on Fri as return flow
establishes across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds in
the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds
this evening, and then prevail mainly over the southern and
entrance of the Gulf through Sun night. Gentle to moderate NE
winds are forecast to develop across Baja California Sur Wed
morning as a surface trough moves just south of the area. Another
surface trough will develop near the entrance of the Gulf of
California on Fri while a strong ridge extends to Los Cabos,
which will result in moderate NNE winds along the Baja California
offshores through the weekend. Looking ahead, a second gale-
force gap wind event is forecast for the region by Sun evening.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and seas to 8-9 ft are
ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with
this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 6 ft in mixed E and NW
swell. In the Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh from
the NNE and seas are 3-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere between
Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to fresh to strong speeds Sat and
moderate to fresh speeds Sun. Rough seas to 10 ft are expected
with this gap wind event. Moderate to fresh easterly winds from
the Papagayo gap wind event will continue to propagate across the
outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight.
Pulsing fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to
moderate speeds on Thu and to light to gentle speeds over the
weekend. Otherwise, light to gentle southerly winds between
Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat
night into Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure of 1033 mb located well N of area extends
a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W.
A weakness in the ridge is being analyzed as a surfacee trough
that extends from 20N127W to 30N131W. Recent scatterometer data
show fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the trough between 128W
and 134W where seas are 8-10 ft per SOFAR buoy data. Far SW from
the SW Mexican offshore waters, an area of moderate to fresh NE
to E winds is present in association to a developing trough.
Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate.

For the forecast, the surface trough to the west of the Baja
California offshore waters will dissipate on Thu and then
surface ridging will dominate the subtropical waters through the
weekend. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will
gradually subside before decaying on Thu morning. Otherwise, a
surface trough is forecast to develop over tropical waters near
110W today and then propagate westward enhancing winds to fresh
to locally strong speeds, and building seas to 10 ft through Sun
night.

$$
Ramos