765
AXPZ20 KNHC 011505
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Sep 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Kiko:
Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 14.0N 126.3W at 01/1500 UTC,
moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Seas are peaking near 14 ft within 30 nm across the N semicircle.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N
between 124W and 127W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 120W and 130W. Kiko will
maintain a general westward motion across the eastern Pacific and
move into the central Pacific basin late this week. The system is
forecast to gradually intensify, and reach hurricane intensity
Tuesday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Kiko NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms off the coast of southwestern Mexico. An area
of low pressure is expected to form from this system within the
next day or so, and it will likely become a tropical depression
around the middle of the week. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph off the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. There is a
medium chance for tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a
high chance for formation in the next 7 days. Regardless of
development, expect an increase in winds and seas off SW Mexico
with this system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave, mentioned above, is near 103W, from
07N northward to the coast of Mexico, moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on this
tropical wave and the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N90W to 15N102W to
14N120W, then resumes from 12N127W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N
between 83W and 91W, from 08N to 19N between 100W and 111W, and
from 05N to 11N between 110W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for information on the
potential of tropical cyclone formation off SW Mexico.

Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted within 240
nm of the coast of southern Mexico from Guerrero to Jalisco,
associated with a tropical wave moving through the area. Strong
gusty and winds and building seas are likely occurring near this
activity. Fresh to strong winds are over these waters near the
convection. Outside of this convection, moderate to fresh
winds prevail between Puerto Angel and Michoacan, where seas are
6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure located NW of the area
extends a ridge southeastward to offshore of Baja Sur, with a
surface trough over the Gulf of California. The associated
pressure gradient is producing moderate NW winds across the Baja
waters north of Punta Eugenia, and gentle winds between Punta
Eugenia and the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 4 to 5 ft seas in
southerly swell across these waters. Light to gentle winds
prevail across the Gulf of California, with seas in the 1-3 ft
range, reaching 4 ft at the entrance of the Gulf. Light winds
prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain centered NW of the
area through mid-week, with an associated ridge across the Baja
California waters. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure and a trough over the Gulf of California will
support moderate NW to N winds across the Baja waters through Tue
before diminishing. A tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coast of
southwestern Mexico. An area of low pressure is expected to form
from this system within the next day or so, and it will likely
become a tropical depression around the middle of the week. This
system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the
next few days. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds
and seas over the waters off SW Mexico through the middle of the
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh gap winds extend from the Papagayo
region offshore to 90W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to
moderate SW to W winds prevail. SW swell is moving through the
Central and South American waters, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft
range. Scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms continue
across the Gulf of Panamas and waters of western Panama and Costa
Rica.

For the forecast, SW swell offshore of Ecuador and Colombia will
subside slightly today through Tue, then increase modestly Wed
and Thu. Moderate gap winds across the Papagayo region will
pulse to fresh speeds at night through the middle of the week.
Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected south of
the monsoon trough through the week. Strong thunderstorms
impacting Panama and Costa Rica will shift west and northwestward
through Tue, reaching the waters of El Salvador and Guatemala.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Tropical Storm Kiko.

Aside from T.S. Kiko, high pressure prevails over the waters N
of 20N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered north of the
discussion area near 38N135W. Outside the winds of Kiko,
gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters N of 10N and
W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are N of 10N and E of 120W.
Moderate to fresh winds are found S of 10N. Seas across the
forecast waters are in the 4-6 ft range, except 6 to 8 ft in
mixed SE and SW swell S of 12N between 95W and 130W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Kiko will move to 13.8N 127.4W
this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.6N 128.8W Tue
morning, 13.5N 130.1W Tue evening, 13.5N 131.7W Wed morning,
13.6N 133.3W Wed evening, and 13.7N 135.0W Thu morning. Kiko will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 14.0N 138.3W
early Fri. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain north of the area
through mid-week, with moderate trade winds expected over the
discussion waters. S to SW swell over the waters south of 10N
will support rough seas south of 10N between 100W and 120W.

$$
AL