163
AXPZ20 KNHC 161539
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: A
tropical wave crossing Central America and Colombia interacting
with the monsoon trough will combine with enhanced divergence
aloft over the next few days to including heavy rainfall over
the Darien region of Panama and the Choco-Colombia into Mon.
There is some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall
could reach, particularly due to how far south the available
moisture and the westerly flow enters the region.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 89.5W north of 02N near the
Galapagos Islands to inland eastern El Salvador and western
Honduras, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure could form
in association with this wave around the middle part of the week
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico, and
gradual tropical development is possible of this low thereafter.
Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W, south of 17W, moving
westward at around 20 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N75W to 08N100W to
07N117W. The ITCZ extends from 07N116W to 08N135W . Scattered to
numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N
to 13N between 77W and 94W, and from 02N to 09N between 94W and
104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical
wave that has a potential for tropical development offshore
southern Mexico next week.

Fresh to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are near the
Pacific coast of Baja California. Elsewhere, winds are moderate
or weaker. Seas are 7 to 10 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 5 to
7 ft over the remaining open Pacific offshore waters, and 1 to 3
ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the offshore waters of Chiapas and Oaxaca.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of
Mexico will continue to induce pulses of fresh to strong north
winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, then
moderate to fresh thereafter. Winds may reach near gale force at
times through Tue night, while rough seas are also expected.
Moderate to fresh northwest winds are forecast off of the Baja
California peninsula through Tue night, with winds reaching
strong speeds near Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are forecast.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are over the
Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 7 to 10 ft downwind to
near 10N90W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker north of the
monsoon trough, and moderate to fresh south of the monsoon
trough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period southwest swell over
the remainder of forecast waters. Very active convection is
present near the monsoon trough as described above across much of
the offshore waters, with locally higher winds and seas possible
near any convection.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over
Central America will lead to fresh to strong northeast to east
gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through tonight before
weakening with winds diminishing to moderate to fresh through
Tue, then back to fresh to strong thereafter. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds will pulse south of the monsoon trough through
Mon. Large southerly swell will impact the waters mainly from
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the next several days,
largest expected by around the middle portion of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weakening low pressure of 1009 mb associated with the remnants of
Hernan is centered near 16N138W. It is producing fresh winds in
the northern semicircle and rough seas in the surrounding waters.
Scattered moderate convection is noted between 90 nm and 180 nm
in the NE quadrant. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found
elsewhere from 15N to 23N between 130W and 140W, and from 08N to
21N between 118W and 130W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
found south of the Equator. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the
remainder of the waters. Seas are 7 to 10 ft south of about 02N
between 90W and 121W, amd 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the
waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southeast winds will prevail
south of the Equator. Rough seas will pulse on either side near
the Equator to the east of about 130W over the next several days
in persistent and reinforced southerly swells. The remnants of
Hernan and associated residual winds and seas will shift of 140W
by this evening. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could
form several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico around the middle portion of next week. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form late next week or over the weekend while
the system moves west-northwestward, well south of Mexico.
Additionally, an area of low pressure is expected to form well to
the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula early next week. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the middle to latter portions of
next week while it moves generally westward across the western
portion of the east Pacific. Regardless of development, expect
some increasing winds and seas with this area.

$$
Konarik