971
AXPZ20 KNHC 062139
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly downgraded Tropical Depression Amanda is centered near
12.3N 134.7W at 2100 UTC, moving southwest at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, based on recent satellite scatterometer
data. Peak seas are currently near 3.5 m, or 11 ft, within 45 nm
across the western semicircle. Amanda remains a sheared system,
with a recent burst of convection occurring within 180 nm NW of
the exposed low-level circulation center. These unfavorable
atmospheric conditions are expected to persist, as the system
moves southwestward of west-southwestward during the next several
days, and becomes a remnant low.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue associated with a
broad area of low pressure located along the monsoon trough, a
few hundred miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so.
The disturbance is forecast to move northeastward and then
northward, and approach the coast of southern Mexico Sunday night
and Monday. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are possible across
portions of southern Mexico through early next week. Currently,
this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in
next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for updates.

Offshore of Central America:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure offshore of Central America have increased in coverage
across the area since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to
form while the system moves slowly northward toward the coast of
Central America. Interests along the Pacific coasts of
northwestern Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding
are possible across portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El
Salvador, and Guatemala through early next week. Currently, this
system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the
next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for updates.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 09N74.5W to low pressure near
11N90W 1009 mb to 14.5N98W to low pres near 14.5N102W 1008 mb,
then resumes from 11N106W to 08.5N119W to 11.5N130W. ITCZ
continues westward from 09.5N105W to 09N126W to 08N130W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted N of
00.5S and E of 84W, from 04.5N to 18N between 84W and 106W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 11N between 106W and 124W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08.5N between 124W and
133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure center located north
of the Hawaiian Islands near 35N151W, extends southeastward
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Sur and to
the Revillagigedo Islands. Weak low pressure is across the
coastal waters of southern California. This pattern is producing
light to gentle NW winds across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro,
and gentle to moderate NW winds S of Cabo San Lazaro. Winds
increase to fresh speeds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas. Seas
are 6 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell across these waters,
except 7 to 9 ft in the outer waters N of Punta Eugenia. Inside
the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds
generally prevail, and moderate to locally fresh S winds across
north portions. Seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across much of the
Gulf, except 3 to 4 ft N portions and 4 to 5 ft in SW swell
across the entrance of the Gulf. Across the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate winds prevail, and
are strongest W through S of EP91. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in SW swell
continue across these waters. Scattered to numerous moderate to
strong showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the
waters from Chiapas to Colima.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending southeastward
into the Baja Sur waters will sustain gentle to moderate NW winds
across the Baja waters through Mon, with fresh to locally strong
NW to W winds persisting near Cabo San Lucas through Tue
evening. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will persist across
the far outer waters of Baja Norte, NW of Isla Guadalupe. Fresh
to locally strong S to SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf
of California until Sun night. The combination of merging NW and
S-SW swell will prolong moderate to rough seas west of Baja
Norte into midweek next week, and near Baja Sur and the
Revillagigedo Islands early Mon through Wed. The low pressure
(EP91) along the monsoon trough mentioned in the Special Features
section will strengthen monsoonal SW to W winds across the
offshore waters of southern Mexico by Sun. These winds could
reach to near-gale force along with very rough seas as large SW
swell moves into the area Mon.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Clusters of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the near and offshore waters of Central America are
associated with an active monsoon trough, and a developing area
of low pressure along 90W. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details.

A weak surface pressure pattern dominates the region. Recent
satellite scatterometer data indicated that a weak low pressure
center is beginning to develop along 90W, while the monsoon
trough has lifted to near 11N. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds
prevail across most of the area S of the trough, except higher
near showers and thunderstorms. Gentle winds are generally N of
the trough. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell dominate the forecast
waters, except to 8 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands and across the
far outer waters W of 90W.

For the forecast, SW swell across the region will fade tonight
through early Sun, before new large SW swell builds across the
regional waters Sun through early Tue. As a result, moderate
seas will becoming rough by Sun, and then very rough in the
offshore waters of Central America by late Sun or early Mon.
At the same time, convergent monsoonal winds will generate
periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across the
regional offshore waters at least into early next week. Low
pressure south of El Salvador and Guatemala mentioned in the
Special Features section will aid in strengthening the monsoonal
SW to W winds across the offshore waters of Central America on
Sun, bringing strong to near-gale force winds into the outer
waters late Sun through Mon.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on newly
downgraded Tropical Depression Amanda located across the
Tropical Pacific W of 130W.

High pressure of 1030 mb located north of the Hawaiian Islands
near 35N151W, dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 115W,
extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and T.D. Amanda is promoting
moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the waters N of 12N and W
of 130W. Seas over these waters and elsewhere N of 20N are in
the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N
swell. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail N of 26N between
120W and 135W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft in N to NE swell and
near 11 ft along 30N. Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon
trough and W of 120W, with moderate to locally fresh winds S of
the monsoon trough and E of 120W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in building
SW swell S of 10N and W of 95W.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Amanda will move to 11.9N
134.8W around midnight tonight, continue to slowly weaken and
reach near 11.4N 135.2W midday Sun, then become a post-tropical
remnant low midnight Sun night near 11.1N 136W, and continue to
move west-southwestward through Tue. Meanwhile, the high
pressure NW of the area will drift W and weaken slightly across
the area through Mon as Amanda tracks SW over the western
portion of the area, resulting in gradually diminishing winds
across the trade wind zone. Large S to SW will reach the equator
this afternoon and move through the regional waters through early
next week, reaching to 20N Sun night through Mon. Northerly
swell in the N-central waters will produce seas of 7 to 10 ft for
the next several days.

Looking ahead, monsoonal southerly winds are forecast to increase
to at least fresh to strong speeds E of 110W this weekend into
early next week with possible tropical cyclone formation off both
southern Mexico and off portions of Central America.

$$
Stripling