713
AXPZ20 KNHC 292049
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Vance is centered near 22.3N 108.6W at
29/2100 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11-12 ft.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring
from 23N-25N east of 108W. The motion to the north motion is
expected to continue until Vance dissipates tonight or early
Friday. Weakening is forecast, and Vance is expected to become
a post-tropical remnant low this evening. Swells generated by
Vance will affect coastal portions of southwestern and west-
central Mexico, as well as the southern portion of the Baja
California Peninsula, during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 10N84W
to 04N100W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted south of 07N between 120W-131W.
Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from 03N-08N
east of 88W and from 03N-08N between 98W-112W and from 08N-10N
west of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Depression Vance near the southern tip of Baja
California Sur.

Aside from Vance, fresh to moderate N to NE gap winds are
occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 6-8 ft.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 5-7 ft over the
Pacific waters, 2-4 ft over the N and central Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Vance will become a
remnant low and move to 23.3N 108.7W at the entrance to the Gulf
of California Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Fresh to
locally strong N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
continue through early next week and diminish by Mon night. A
developing extratropical cyclone should move into the waters west
of the Baja California peninsula and over the N Gulf of
California Sat night into Sun with fresh to strong SE to SW
winds. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds should occur over the Gulf
of California on Mon and Tue in the wake of the extratropical
cyclone.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo
region. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6
ft. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from 03N-08N
east of 88W.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds over
the Gulf of Papagayo region should continue through Mon. Fresh N
winds over the Gulf of Panama should continue through tomorrow
before weakening on Sat. Large, long-period SW swell will reach
the equatorial waters tomorrow before diminishing on Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1012 mb low is centered near 27N136W with a trough extending
northwestward to 39N140W and southwestward to 22N140W. Winds
north of the low are E fresh with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the
pressure gradient between weak ridging north of our waters and
lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing only moderate
or weaker trades across the forecast waters. Large, long-period
SW swell is reaching northward across the equator to 04N between
108W-128W. Elsewhere seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, the weak low will become an extratropical
cyclone by tomorrow morning and then move slowly eastward. By
Fri night, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop south of a
warm front and fresh to strong N to NE winds should occur north
of a cold front. The system should move over the offshore zones
west of the Baja California peninsula on Sun with winds and seas
diminishing by Sun night.

$$
Landsea