458
AXPZ20 KNHC 242024
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 90W reaching southward from
El Salvador into the eastern Pacific to near 04N. It is moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is active from 7N to 13N between 87W and 92W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N110W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to
10N between 112W and 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak trough is noted W of the area from 27N124W to 23N118W.
This breaks up the standard subtropical ridge pattern that is
normally in place over the region, resulting in a very weak
pressure gradient. Thus, winds are mainly light and variable
across the offshore waters of Mexico, with the except of just
offshore Cabo San Lucas, where some moderate NW winds have
developed. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft over open waters with
components of NW and SW swell. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf
of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are likely to pulse just
offshore Cabo San Lucas tonight and Tue night. Elsewhere a weak
gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes
and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters
through the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of El Salvador ahead of the tropical wave. Light to gentle winds
persist across the regional offshore waters, with 4 to 6 ft
combined seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern over the region will
continue to support generally gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate wave heights through the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1029 mb high pressure well
north-northeast of Hawaii dominates the basin west of 120W. Seas
are generally 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell, highest along the monsoon
trough between 120W and 130W. Mainly gentle winds prevail.
Little change is expected in marine conditions this week.

$$
Konarik