930
AXPZ20 KNHC 062203
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 24.0N 122.9W, or about 480 nm
west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 06/2100 UTC, moving
northwest at 06 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Peak seas are to near 28 ft (8.5 m). Latest satellite imagery
shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 120
nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate
convection is seen elsewhere within 60 nm of the center, except
90 nm in the SW quadrant. Marie is forecast to turn toward the
west-northwest tonight before resuming a northwestward heading
at a faster forward speed in Tue. Steady weakening is expected to
continue for the next several days. Marie is forecast to become
a post-tropical remnant low on Wed. Swells generated by Marie
will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest
Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and Southern California
for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 107.5W from 04N to 19N. It is
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 12N to 18N between 103W and 110W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere from 10N to 19N
between 103W and 111W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from near northwest Colombia,
westward across northern Panama, and continues to 10N85W to
10N96W to 11N102W to 10N113W to 11N123W to 10N130W and to beyond
09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
present from the Equator to 09n west of 115W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 08N between 77W-88W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 18N between
92W-110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Marie centered about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico.

Fresh to strong southeast to south winds on the outer fringe
of Hurricane Marie are over the outer offshore waters from
Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas within these winds are
8 to 12 ft in southwest to west swell. Moderate or weaker winds
and rough seas in southwest to west swell are over the rest of
the Baja California offshore waters. Over the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over Baja California Sur,
and over the southern portion of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is forecast to weaken to
to a tropical storm near 24.4N 123.7W late tonight, move to near
25.0N 124.9W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt
gusts 55 kt, to near 25.6N 126.3W late Mon night, to near 26.7N
127.4W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45
kt, to near 28.6N 128.4W late Tue night, then weaken to a remnant
low near 30.7N 129.4W Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore
waters of Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California
early this week as Marie moves farther away from the forecast
waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
expected to begin by around the middle portion of the upcoming
week. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure located several
hundred nautical miles south- southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible,
and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter
portions of this week while the system moves generally west-
northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Earlier satellite Ascat data captured fresh northeast to east
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with
these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
affecting much of the offshore waters of Central America and
Colombia, some of which may be accompanied by gusty winds and
higher seas.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the
Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. Building
ridging by the middle of the week will result in strong gap
winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near
gale Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are
expected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Tue through Wed. Moderate or lighter winds are expected
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about
Hurricane Marie located about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico.

Outside from marine impacts attributed to Hurricane Marie over
the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh cyclonic
winds and rough seas persist from 21N to 28N and west of 138W
associated with the outer eastern quadrant of Tropical Storm
Karina that continues to move farther away from the eastern
Pacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of
5 to 7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical
eastern Pacific.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 24.0N 122.9W, or
about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 2 PM
PDT, and is moving northwest at 06 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 980 mb. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm near 24.4N
123.7W late tonight, move to near 25.0N 124.9W Mon afternoon with
maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 25.6N 126.3W
late Mon night, to near 26.7N 127.4W Tue afternoon with maximum
sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, to near 28.6N 128.4W late Tue
night, then weaken to a remnant low near 30.7N 129.4W Wed
afternoon.

Looking ahead, cross equatorial swell will produce seas to 8 ft
in the southern waters west of about 100W during much of the
week. A trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical
miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form during the middle or latter portions of this week
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.

$$
Aguirre