292
AXPZ20 KNHC 280837
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 18.6N 108.6W at 28/0900
UTC, moving north at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to
45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12-13 ft or 4 m. Vance
remains a sheared tropical cyclone with convection limited to the
NE to E side of the system with some new deep convection having
developed in the past several hours. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 240 nm in the NE semicircle of Vance
and 0 nm elsewhere. Vance is moving toward the north. A turn
toward the north-northeast is expected later today. Little
change in strength is forecast during the next 24 h, followed by
gradual weakening. Vance is expected to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Thu as it approaches the coast of northwestern
Mexico. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will
impact portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across central and
southern Sinaloa, western Durango, and northwestern Nayarit,
especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells generated by
Vance will affect coastal portions of southwestern, west-central
Mexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the
latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea near 12N74W
to 05N86W to 08N98W well SE of Tropical Storm Vance, then resumes
well SW of Vance from 07N114W to 06N126W to 1011 mb low pressure
near 08N136.5W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 124W and 129W, and
from 00N to 10N between 133W and 140W. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate convection is noted in a band within 02N117W
to 13N105W to 17N106W to 17N103W to 11N103W to 02N117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Vance.

Northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh to near gale
force with seas to rough. Light to gentle winds, and slight to
moderate seas, prevail in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere,
outside of Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly
moderate or weaker, with moderate seas, over the open waters off
Mexico, except locally fresh winds nearshore Baja California per
recent ASCAT scatterometer data.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 20.0N 108.7W
this afternoon, 21.6N 108.3W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant
low near 23.1N 108.0W Thu afternoon, inland to 25.2N 107.1W Fri
morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will pulse fresh to near gale force through early
Fri, then moderate to fresh through Sat night, then fresh to
strong thereafter. A developing low pressure and frontal system
may impact the Baja California Peninsula waters late in the
upcoming weekend with the potential for increasing winds and
building seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will
prevail otherwise.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas generally prevail,
locally fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo and the Gulf of Panama.
Scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms prevail across
the waters from southern Costa Rica southward to Ecuador.

For the forecast, NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of
Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the end
of the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally strong at
times this weekend. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except
mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas may briefly build to rough
in SW swell S of the Equator by the end of the week as winds
freshen there on Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storm Vance.

A slow moving cold front is over the far NW waters with nearby
convection now confined to N of the discussion waters. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas are within 60 nm east of the front.
High pressure prevails elsewhere N of about 20N. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough
is supporting moderate to locally fresh tradewinds from 14N to
18N and between 124W and 137W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data.
Moderate seas are found over these waters. Moderate to fresh
winds, and rough seas are found S of 04N between 100W and 120W.
Across the remainder of the waters, winds are moderate or weaker
with moderate seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 20.0N 108.7W
this afternoon, 21.6N 108.3W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant
low near 23.1N 108.0W Thu afternoon, inland to 25.2N 107.1W Fri
morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Fresh to locally strong SE
to S winds over the NW part of the area will diminish to mostly
fresh speeds by tonight. Cross equatorial SW swell will spread
northward through mid-week, building seas to 7-10 ft S of 04N
between 105W and 128W by late tonight, while mixing with NE
swells generated by Vance. These rough seas are expected to
linger through at least Fri night, likely subsiding by the start
of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas will persist through at least mid- week. A developing low
pressure and frontal system may impact the waters N of 20N by the
end of the week into the upcoming weekend, with the potential
for increasing winds and building seas as the system shifts
eastward.

$$
Lewitsky