009
AXPZ20 KNHC 310905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Aug 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Eleven-E:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a disturbance
across the tropical eastern Pacific near 122W has become better
organized in recent hours, and recent satellite scatterometer
wind data showed a well defined center. A classic comma-shaped
band of scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is occurring from 12N to 17N between 121W to 124W. Based on these
signals, the disturbance (EP93) has been upgraded to Tropical
Depression Eleven-E. At 0900 UTC, the new tropical depression was
located near 14.4N 122.3W moving westward at 8 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1009 mb. This system is expected to move
generally westward during the next several days and gradually
intensify, becoming a tropical storm by this afternoon, and
reaching hurricane strength Tue afternoon near 130W. Computer
model forecasts suggest that this system will remain compact in
size during the next few days. This system is likely to cross
into the central Pacific basin during the middle to latter part
of next week. Please refer to the latest National Weather
Service High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 93W, from 08N northward
into Chiapas, Mexico, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection
associated with this tropical wave is described below in the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 102W, from 07N northward
to near the coast of south-central Mexico, moving westward near
10 kt. Convection associated with this tropical wave is described
below in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N73W to 07N83W to
11N92W to 11N108W to low pressure near 14.5N122W to 11N132W. The
ITCZ continues from 11N132W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 11N
east of 89W, from 07N to 16.5N between 91W and 109W, from 11N to
17N between 111W and 123W, and from 07N to 12N between 121W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms
are occurring within 180 nm of the coast of southern Mexico from
western Guerrero to Chiapas, associated with a pair of tropical
waves moving through the area. Strong gusty and winds and rapidly
building seas are likely occurring near this activity. Outside
of this convection, moderate E to SE winds prevail across this
area, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure located
NW of the area extends a modest ridge southeastward to offshore
of Baja Sur. The associated pressure gradient is producing moderate
NW winds across the Baja waters north of Punta Eugenia, and
gentle to moderate N winds between Punta Eugenia and the
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell
across these waters. Gentle westerly winds prevail across the
Gulf of California and become northerly to Cabo Corrientes. Light
winds prevail elsewhere between Cabo Corrientes and Acapulco.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain NW of the area and
maintain a modest ridge across the Baja California waters
through Tue. This pattern will produce moderate NW to N winds
across the Baja waters through early next week. A tropical wave
approaching Tehuantepec tonight will produce active weather and
fresh to locally strong easterly winds as it moves westward on Sun.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system
within the next day or two, and it is likely to become a tropical
depression by the middle of next week while moving west-
northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 kt just offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a medium chance of
tropical formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance
within the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate E to SE winds continue tonight from the Papagayo region
westward through the waters offshore of El Salvador and
Guatemala, behind a pair of tropical waves. South of the monsoon
trough, moderate SW to W winds prevail, becoming moderate to
fresh S to SW winds south of 04N. SW swell is moving through the
Central and South American waters this weekend, leading to 5 to 7
ft seas. Recent altimeter data show 7 to 8 ft seas are occurring
south through east of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, SW swell will support rough seas to 8 offshore
of Ecuador and Colombia through Sun morning before seas begin to
subside through Mon. Elsewhere, moderate gap winds will occur
across the Papagayo region through Mon, then pulse to fresh at
night through the middle of the week. Otherwise, moderate to
fresh S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough
through next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Juliette has finally
opened up into a trough, and continues drifting southwestward at
5 to 10 mph. 1021 mb high pressure is centered north of the
discussion area near 33N135W, and extends a modest ridge south
and southeastward across the regional waters. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the monsoon
trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate N to NE winds and
moderate seas north of 20N between 120W and 130W. Broad ridging
extends through the rest of the eastern Pacific north of the
monsoon trough and west of T.D. Eleven-E, supporting gentle to
locally moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere north
of 20N, and moderate to locally fresh NE winds south of 20N.
Recent altimeter satellite data and buoy observations show 6 to 7
ft seas south of 20N and west of 115W. South of the monsoon
trough, mixed SE and SW swell is supporting 8 to 9 ft seas
between 90W and 120W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds
prevail over these waters.

For the forecast, New S to SW swell will move into the southern
waters south of 10N today to promote rough seas south of the
equator into the middle of next week. Elsewhere, rough seas may
develop north of 05N between 100W and 120W late Sun into next
week as a potential tropical depression develops offshore of
southern Mexico by the middle of next week. Newly formed Tropical
Depression Eleven-E will move westward and gradually strengthen
over the next several days, reaching near 14.6N 123.6W as a
tropical storm around noon today, near 14.5N 126.8W midday Mon,
near 14.3N 130.4W as a hurricane midday Tue, then continue
westward, crossing 140W Thu night.

$$
Stripling