630
AXPZ20 KNHC 160247
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila is centered near 18.6N 109.2W at
16/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 15 ft or 4.5
meters. No deep convection is present with Dalila. A gradual turn
towards the west is expected tonight, followed by continued
westward motion for another day or two. Continued slow weakening
is expected during the next couple of days. Dalila is forecast
to dissipate late Tue or early Wed. Swells generated by Dalila
will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Dalila NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (Invest EP94):
A broad 1009 mb area of low pressure located near 09.5N88.5W
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
and offshore of Central America. Associated winds are locally to
25 kt with seas to 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in a couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward near the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala,
and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these locations should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of Central America
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. This system
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the
next 48 hours, and a high chance through the next 7 days. Please
read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave extends from the
Caribbean Sea southward along 79W to across eastern Panama and
the Gulf of Panama north of 05N, moving westward around 10 kt.
The majority of associated convection is noted over the SW
Caribbean Sea with some enhancement over interior western and
coastal Colombia.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09.5N79.5W to across
western Panama and southern Costa Rica to 1009 mb low pressure,
Invest EP94, near 09.5N88.5W to 15.5N103W, then resumes south of
Post-Tropical Dalila near 13N109W to 09N122W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N122W to beyond 09N140W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 86W and 92W, from 06N
to 16N between 91W and 99W, from 09N to 12.5N between 100W and
115W, and from 08N to 13N between 128W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on now
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila, and on Invest EP94 which may impact
the regional southern Mexico waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec area.

Other than Dalila, ridging is present west of Baja California
with moderate or weaker winds, except locally fresh near Punta
Eugenia. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are in the southern Gulf
of California, and moderate or weaker elsewhere including
offshore SW and southern Mexico in the wake of Dalila. Seas are 4
to 7 ft offshore Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 8
ft or greater southeast of there to the southern Gulf of
California and offshore Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 3 ft or less
elsewhere in the Gulf of California, and 5 to 7 ft across the
remainder of the waters offshore SW and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, Dalila will become a remnant low and move to 18.7N
110.5W Mon morning, 18.8N 112.0W Mon evening, 18.9N 113.8W Tue
morning, 18.5N 116.1W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Other
than Dalila and Invest EP94 which may impact the waters offshore
Tehuantepec, cross-equatorial southerly swell will continue to
impact the waters between Tehuantepec and Baja California Sur
through early Mon. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the
area will support pulsing moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters through the
week. Rough NW to N swell will build into the Baja waters Mon
evening through the week. Moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds will prevail across the Gulf of California tonight through
Tue, locally strong in the northern Gulf Mon. Winds will be
mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Invest
EP94.

Other than Invest EP94, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere
from offshore Colombia northward, with seas of 4 to 7 ft.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands, with 7 to 9 ft seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, other than Invest EP94 which may bring
increasing winds and seas as well as heavy rainfall described
above, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail offshore
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the week. Winds will be
moderate or weaker offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to
moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning.
Meanwhile, rough seas off Ecuador will subside slightly through
Mon then remain 5 to 7 ft through the remainder of the week. Seas
will be mainly 4 to 7 ft offshore Colombia northward through
mid-week, higher near Invest EP94, then will subside by the end
of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila, and on Invest EP94.

Broad and weak ridging extend from a high well NW of the
discussion waters to across the open waters north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ and west of Post-Tropical Dalila. Winds are
mainly moderate or weaker across the open waters, both north and
south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, locally fresh south of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft across the
open waters in mixed southerly and northerly swells, locally 8
ft in the north-central waters, and in the southern waters near
03.4S.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink
slightly southward through the week. A slight increase in winds
is expected over the NW waters through the week, while winds
weaken to the west and southwest of the approaching remnants of
Dalila during the next few days. A slight increase in seas is
expected across the northern waters east of 130W Mon night
through Thu as new N to NE swell moves into the regional waters,
spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky