948
AXPZ20 KNHC 161607
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 02N to 16N, with axis near 104W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection described in the section
below.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 18N with axis near 114W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 19N with axis near 133W,
moving westward around 10 kt. Convection described in the section
below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N114W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N114W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical wave along 113W,
scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 97W and
106W, and from 06N to 15N and W of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh SE winds prevail over the northern portion of the Gulf of
California along with 4 ft seas due to the pressure gradient
between a 1008 mb low off the NW Mexico coast and a surface ridge
over the E Pacific subtropical waters. Moderate to fresh N winds
are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas to 7 ft in
SW swell. Elsewhere, locally moderate or weaker winds prevail
along with moderate seas in SW swell, except N swell N of Punta
Eugenia.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh SE winds over the
northern Gulf of California will prevail through tonight.
Pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will occur in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through Thu night as high pressure builds over
central Mexico. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds Thu
night into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens
further, resulting in rough seas to 8 ft. Farther south,
moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo,
will occur well offshore of southern Mexico through today.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere, except for slight seas over the southern half
of the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail in the Gulf of
Papagayo along with rough seas to 9 ft, reaching as far as 92W.
Pulsing moderate to fresh N winds also continue over the Gulf of
Panama with moderate seas to 6 ft. Moderate SE to S winds are
ongoing between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands with seas to 8
ft in SW swell. Locally moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas in SW swell are elsewhere across the Central America
offshore waters.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend as high
pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America, building
seas to rough at times. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds will continue between Ecuador and The
Galapagos Islands through Sun night with rough seas to 8 ft
subsiding SW of the Galapagos early Thu morning.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1037 mb well northwest of the discussion waters
near 45N146W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough. Moderate trades are in the belt from 10N to
20N west of 110W, and from 10N to 15N east of 110W. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 90W, and moderate east of 90W.
Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail across the waters
south of 04N. Moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas will
continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this week as
ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will propagate through the
southern waters promoting rough seas south of 05N, through mid-
week, then decaying through the end of the week. A new N swell
will arrive and lead to rough seas north of 25N by midweek,
decaying by the end of the week.

$$
Ramos