516
AXPZ20 KNHC 040333 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Sep 4 2025

Correction to Peak Seas with Kiko

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Kiko:
Major Hurricane Kiko remains at Category 4 intensity and is
centered near 13.8N 132.3W at 04/0300 UTC, moving west at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed has increased to 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Seas are
peaking near 38 ft within 20 nm north of center. Satellite imagery
tonight shows that Kiko has an 8 nm wide eye. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 130.5W and
133.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from
11.5N to 15.5N between 131W and 134W. Kiko has likely reached near
peak intensity, and will remain a category 4 hurricane while
maintaining a general westward motion across the eastern Pacific
through Fri morning, crossing 140W and into the central Pacific
basin Sat. Kiko is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend Fri
through the weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Kiko NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Hurricane Lorena:
Hurricane Lorena is centered near 23.4N 113.2W at 04/0300 UTC,
moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90
kt. Maximum seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted from 23N to 24N between 112.5W and 113.5W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 16N to
26N between 105W and 114.5W, and is impacting Baja California
Sur. Lorena is expected to move northwestward during the next 24
hours, and then is forecast to recurve and cross over central
Baja California Fri, then into mainland Mexico Sat afternoon and
evening. Heavy rainfall is expected across the offshore waters of
Baja California Sur, and will continue to impact Baja California
Sur, moving into southwestern Sonora Thursday. These rains are
likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the southern and western coasts of Baja California
Sur during the next couple of days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Lorena NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W from 06N northward into
Mexico, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10.5N88W to 09.5N93W
to 17N109W to 16.5N10W, then resumes from 12.5N134W to beyond
11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
05N to 10N east of 91W, from 07N to 15.5N between 91W and 103W,
and from 07N to 16N between 103W and 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for information on Hurricane
Lorena southwest of Baja California Sur.

Outside of Lorena, fresh to strong S to SE winds prevail along
the coast and the nearshore waters fro, just SW of Cabo San
Lucas to just N of Cabo San Lazaro, where seas are 8 to 12 ft.
Bands of strong thunderstorms are impacting Baja California Sur
and the adjacent waters to the east and west. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds prevail elsewhere from offshore of Cabo Corrientes
to the entrance of the Gulf of California, where seas are 6 to 7
ft. Outside of these winds, moderate southerly winds are inside
the south and central Baja California waters, with seas of 3 to
5 ft. Farther east, light winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail
elsewhere over the open waters off southern Mexico. To the north,
weak high pressure continues will NW of the area, producing
gentle to moderate northerly winds across the waters of north and
central Baja. Seas are 4 to 5 ft there.

For the forecast, Hurricane Lorena will move to 24.1N 113.9W Thu
morning, then begin to slowly weaken, reaching near 25.0N 114.1W
late Thu afternoon as a tropical storm, reach near 26.0N 113.8W
Fri morning, along the Baja coast near 27.0N 113.4W late Fri
afternoon, then move across Baja and weaken to a remnant low
over the central Gulf of California near 28.0N 113.0W Sat
morning, move to the Tiburon Basin near 28.8N 112.9W late Sat
afternoon before dissipating inland across Mexico. Elsewhere,
moderate N winds across the north and central portions of the
Baja waters will weaken near the coast Thu through Fri. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are expected to develop inside the
southern Gulf of California tonight through Thu as Lorena
approaches the Baja Pacific coast.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate gap winds extend from the Papagayo region offshore to
88W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. SW swell continues to dominate the waters of Central and
South America, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range, except to 7 ft
southeast through southwest of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, SW swell offshore of Ecuador and Colombia will
increase modestly through Thu. Moderate gap winds across the
Papagayo region will pulse to fresh speeds at night through Thu.
Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected south of
the monsoon trough through the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Hurricane Kiko.

Aside from Kiko, high pressure prevails over the waters N of
20N, centered on a 1022 mb high near 33N132W. Outside the winds
of Kiko, moderate to fresh winds prevail across the waters
between 08N and 20N and west of 127W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere north of 12N. Moderate to fresh winds are found
south of 12N. Seas across the forecast waters are in the 4-6 ft
range, except 6 to 8 ft in mixed SE and SW swell S of 14N between
100W and 135W.

For the forecast, dangerous category 4 Hurricane Kiko will
continue westward and move to 13.8N 133.4W Thu morning, near 13.9N
135.0W late Thu afternoon, near 14.1N 136.6W Fri morning, near
14.6N 138.1W late Fri afternoon, to near 15.1N 139.7W Sat
morning, and cross into the central Pacific basin near 15.7N
141.3W late Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will
remain north of the area through Thu, with moderate trade winds
expected over the discussion waters, then weakening into Sat. S
to SW swell over will support rough seas south of 14N between
100W and 120W.

$$
Stripling