912
AXPZ20 KNHC 162204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jul 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 16N, with axis near 105W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 13N between 104W and 110W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 17N, with axis near 114W,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N to 16N between 110W and 118W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 15N, with axis near 133W,
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 13N between 126W and 135W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 10N110W to 11N136W.
The ITCZ continues from 11N136W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is from 02N to 06N E of 86W, and from 06N to
10N between 89W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh SE winds prevail over the northern portion of the Gulf of
California along with 4 ft seas due to the pressure gradient
between a surface trough off NW Mexico and a surface ridge over
the E Pacific subtropical waters. Moderate to fresh N winds are
ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas to 6 ft in
SW swell. Elsewhere, locally moderate or weaker winds prevail
along with moderate seas in SW swell, except NW swell N of Punta
Eugenia.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh SE winds over the
northern Gulf of California will prevail through tonight.
Pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will occur in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through Thu night as high pressure builds over
central Mexico. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds Fri
morning into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens
further, resulting in rough seas to 8 ft. Afterward, winds in
Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate to fresh, continuing
through Mon night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail in the Gulf of
Papagayo along with rough seas to 8 ft, reaching as far as 92W.
Pulsing moderate N winds also continue over the Gulf of Panama
with moderate seas to 6 ft. Moderate SE to S winds are ongoing
between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands with seas to 8 ft in SW
swell. Locally moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW
swell are elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will
continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend, diminishing
to moderate to fresh speeds Mon. Moderate to locally fresh N
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds will continue between Ecuador and The
Galapagos Islands through Mon night with rough seas to 8 ft
subsiding SW of the Galapagos early Thu morning.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1038 mb well northwest of the discussion waters
near 44N146W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough. Moderate trades are in the belt from 11N to
20N west of 114W, and from 08N to 14N east of 114W. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere north of 20N with rough seas
to 9 ft in NE swell over the far NW waters, N of 28N and W of
132W. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds
prevail with moderate seas, except rough to 9 ft S of 06N.

For the forecast, rough seas over the NW waters will subside
tonight. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate
seas will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 20N
through Mon night, except for rough seas developing W of 130W Sat
night through Mon. These winds and seas will be modulated by the
passage of several tropical waves under a prevalent subtropical
ridge through the forecast period.

$$
Ramos