744
AXPZ20 KNHC 041947
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing
over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across
northern portions of Central America and into the tropical
eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low-
level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over
the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation
developing across Central America starting today and lasting
through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected
across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation
occurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your
local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more details.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Invest EP95/CP95): A
1008 mb has recently moved west from the East Pacific basin to
the Central Pacific basin near 08.5N140.5W. This low is starting
to produce more concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity as
described with the monsoon trough below. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves
westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has
a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 48
hours and high chance in the next 7 days. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website:
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOCP.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from across central Nicaragua to near
the Gulf of Papagayo at 12N87W to 04N98W to 07.5N105W to 03N128W
to low pressure, Invest EP95/CP95, now just west of the area at
08.5N140.5W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 02S to 13N between 77W and 98W, from 03.4S to 09N
between 106W and 124W, and from 07N to 11N between 126W and 134W.
Similar convection is from 08N to 20N between 137W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds are pressure in the offshore waters of
Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro as noted on recent ASCAT
scatterometer data due to high pressure building SE toward the
region. Seas in these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, across the
Mexican offshore waters, gentle winds prevail, with moderate
seas in mainly SW swell, mixed with NW swell west of 110W, and
except for the Gulf of California, where slight seas dominate.

For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will
maintain a ridge across the region, supporting moderate to fresh
NW winds across the Baja Norte waters through tonight, locally
strong near Sebastian Vizcaino Bay in the evening. Large NW
swell will impact the Baja waters through Thu. The next pulse of
large NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning early Fri.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of
California and near Cabo Corrientes starting Fri afternoon.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night, increasing to near gale
force Sun night as a cold front moves into the SW Gulf of
America, and then possible gale force Mon night. A set of large
and rough NW swell may approach Baja California early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of
Central America as described with the monsoon trough above. A
broad zone of moderate to locally fresh S winds is noted ESE of
this low, along with numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection as described with the monsoon trough above. Locally
rough seas are possible there as well. The winds and convection
extends southward to near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, winds
are light to gentle, with moderate seas.

For the forecast, the broad low pressure is forecast to drift
northward. Gradual development of this system is possible during
the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by
this weekend. There is a low chance of tropical formation over
the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7 days.
Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy
rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. See
the Special Features section above for details. Mainly moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features Section above for information on low
pressure that has very recently crossed from the East Pacific
basin to the Central Pacific basin with the potential for
tropical development.

A frontal trough is analyzed over the northern waters from
roughly 28N118W to 25N140W. Little sensible weather remains
associated with this boundary, which should fully dissolve later
tonight. The pressure gradient between high pressure building in
from the north and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is
leading to widespread moderate to fresh NE to E winds across
waters N of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, locally strong
near the area of low pressure at 140W. Long period NW swell and
wind-waves are combining to create rough seas over the same
area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail, with moderate
seas

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the
west-central waters, locally strong through the end of the week.
Meanwhile, NW swell will continue spreading through the region
through tonight, while reinforcing new NW swell will start to
arrive by early Thu, keeping rough seas. Additional reinforcing
NW swell will keep moving in through the upcoming weekend and
into early next week. Looking ahead, merging NW and SE swell may
produce 8 to 9 ft seas close to the equator by the end of the
week into the weekend, possibly lingering into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky