855
AXPZ20 KNHC 201543
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Mexican State of Chiapas and Central America Heavy Rainfall:
The broad wind field of Tropical Depression Alberto southeast of
Tampico, Mexico continues to draw abundant moisture from the
eastern Pacific Ocean into the coastal terrain of Chiapas State
in Mexico and northern Central America. This can cause life-
threatening conditions that include flooding and mudslides. Areas
expecting the heaviest rainfall through Fri evening are far
southeastern Guatemala, El Salvador, southwestern Honduras and
far western Nicaragua. Please refer to your local meteorological
and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends WSW from offshore of the Oaxaca State
in Mexico near 12N98W to 11N117W to 09N126W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 85W and 102W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between
105W and 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
an ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Tropical Depression Alberto is centered 80 nm W of Tampico
Mexico, moving W at 16 kt. This system continues to sustain fresh
to locally strong SW to W monsoonal winds and 9 to 11 ft seas
across the offshore waters of Oaxaca and Chiapas States in
southern Mexico. Meanwhile, fresh to strong W to NW winds and
seas at 6 to 8 ft are found offshore of central and the rest of
southern Mexico, including waters near Cabo San Lucas and Cabo
Corrientes. For waters west of Baja California and near the
Revillagigedo Islands, moderate to locally fresh NW to NNW winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist. Gentle with locally moderate
southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas, and scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will continue to impact the southern Mexico offshore waters through
Fri, primarily off Chiapas and Oaxaca. Dangerous surf is also
anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri
evening. To the north, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas
are expected near Baja California Sur, including the waters near
Cabo San Lucas and off Cabo Corrientes through Fri morning due to
tighter pressure gradient. During the weekend, fresh to strong
southerly winds might develop at the northern Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Tropical Depression Alberto currently located W of Tampico,
Mexico continues to sustain fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal
winds and 8 to 11 ft seas across the offshore waters of
Guatemala, El Salvador and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh SW winds along with seas at 5 to 7 ft are found at
the offshore waters for Colombia and the rest of the Central
America. Further south, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4
to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell exist near the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador
and northwestern Nicaragua through Fri. Dangerous surf is also
anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until Fri
evening. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama into the weekend.
Farther south, moderate to rough seas in moderate southerly swell
will continue near the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador
into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the
region.

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from north of Hawaii
to west of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient is
supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7
ft north of ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 120W. West of
115W near the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate
monsoonal and southerly winds with 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed
moderate swells exist. East of 115W and north of 06N, fresh to
strong SW to NW monsoonal winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are
present. South of 06N and ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to S winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate southerly swell dominate.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 115W and
north of 06N will gradually decrease starting Fri evening.
Otherwise, little overall changes are expected through the
weekend.

$$
AReinhart