682
AXPZ20 KNHC 260405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.4N 110.1W, or about 310 nm
southwest of Cabo Corrientes Mexico at 26/0300 UTC, moving west-
northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 150 kt with gusts to 185 kt.
Peak seas are 46 ft (14 m). Polo looks very impressive in
satellite imagery as it remains a powerful category 5 hurricane
on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A clear 15 nm wide
eye is observed. The imagery reveals that Polo has numerous
strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant,
150 nm of the center in the SE and NW quadrants and 120 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant. Polo will maintain its current motion
tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest on Sat
and north on Sun. By Mon, Polo is forecast to turn northeastward
and approach Baja California Sur. Fluctuations in intensity are
possible tonight and Sat. Slow weakening is expected after that,
but Polo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it
approaches Baja California Sur early next week. Polo is expected
to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts
of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of
forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 18.8N 123.6W, or about 810 nm
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at
26/0300 UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are 38 ft (11.5 m). Odalys remains a
powerful major hurricane, though satellite imagery is beginning
to show signs of weakening. Its eye remains rather ragged. The
imagery shows numerous strong convection within 120 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant, 75 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant, 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 90 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. Odalys is expected to maintain
its current motion through Sat, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Sunday. An eastward to southeastward motion is
forecast early next week. Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is
forecast to begin tonight and continue through early next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Low pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low
pressure, Invest EP90, located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of
tropical formation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical
formation through the next 7 days. The broader circulation, deep
moisture, and instability associated with this system is already
producing heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and
Southern Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts through Sat night
across portions of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, as well
as Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, will raise concerns for life-
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local
weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, to across northern Costa
Rica, to 10N85W to 11.5N91W to Invest EP90 and to 14N99W. It
resumes to the SW of Odalys at 12N127W, to 11N132.5W and to
beyond 14N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 02N to 10N between 129W-140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the
trough between 85W-90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricanes Polo and Odalys as well as low pressure
developing south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec that is bringing very
heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico. Fresh northeast
gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas

Latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate gentle to
moderate northwest to north winds offshore the Baja California
Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican
offshore waters away from Hurricane Polo. Light to gentle winds
are in the Gulf of California. Large seas in long-period
southeast to south swell out ahead of Polo are impacting the
offshore waters of Baja California south of about Punta Eugenia
and at the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas produced by
the swell are in the range of about 8 to 12 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft
in west to northwest are over the offshore waters of the states
of Michoacna and Guerrero and seas of 5 to 7 ft in west to
northwest swell are over the waters of those states. Seas of 2 to
4 ft are in the central section of the Gulf of California, 3 ft
or less in the northern section and 4 to 6 ft in the southern
section of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 17.8N
111.4W Sat morning, to near 19.0N 112.8W Sat evening, to near
20.6N 113.6W Sun morning, to near 22.6N 113.8W Sun evening, to
near 24.6N 113.4W Mon morning and to near 26.3N 112.1W Mon
evening. Polo is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm while
moving inland over Sonora late Tue. Long-period swells generated
by Polo will impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja
California offshore waters through the period. Meanwhile,
Hurricane Odalys is near 18.8N 123.6W, or about 810 nm west-
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and
is moving north at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb.
Odalys will move to near 9.6N 123.5W Sat morning, to near 20.8N
123.4W Sat evening, to near 21.9N 123.1W Sun morning, weaken to a
tropical storm near 22.4N 122.6W Sun evening, then become post-
tropical and move to 22.3N 122.0W Mon morning, and weaken to a
remnant low near 21.5N 121.3W Mon evening and reach near 19.3N
119.8W late Tue. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend
or early next week while the system moves slowly west-
northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SE winds have developed offshore Guatemala, flowing
toward lower pressure south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec.
Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas
prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of
Panama.

For the forecast, as low pressure develops to the west of the
area, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and
locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through
the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to
prevail across the offshore waters through early next week, along
with mostly moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricanes Polo and Odalys.

Outside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward
over the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it
and Odalys has lead to fresh northeast winds covering the waters
west of a line from about 30N123W to 22N130W and to near 15N140W.
Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft per latest satellite
altimeter data passes. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere. The hurricanes have generated a broad area of rough
seas from 09N to 26N and east of about 133W.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.4N 110.1W, or
about 310 nm southwest of Cabo Corrientes Mexico at 8 PM PDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
150 kt with gusts to 185 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
911 mb. Polo will move to near 17.8N 111.4W Sat morning, to near
19.0N 112.8W Sat evening, to near 20.6N 113.6W Sun morning, to
near 22.6N 113.8W Sun evening, to near 24.6N 113.4W Mon morning
and to near 26.3N 112.1W Mon evening. Polo is forecast to weaken
to a tropical storm while moving inland over Sonora late Tue.
Long-period swells generated by Polo will impact a good majority
of the Mexican and Baja California offshore waters through the
period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys is near 18.8N 123.6W, or
about 810 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 4 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 952 mb. Odalys will move to near 9.6N 123.5W
Sat morning, to near 20.8N 123.4W Sat evening, to near 21.9N
123.1W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 122.6W
Sun evening, then become post-tropical and move to 22.3N 122.0W
Mon morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 21.5N 121.3W Mon
evening and reach near 19.3N 119.8W late Tue. Looking ahead, an
area of low pressure located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
becoming organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form
about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the
weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
late this weekend or early next week. The system is forecast to
move generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands.

$$
Aguirre