184
AXPZ20 KNHC 122100
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1029 mb high pressure system
over the northeast Gulf of America continues to support strong to
near-gales northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated winds to 30 kt
across the basin. These winds will likely pulse to gale force
tonight due to added drainage effects. In addition, strong to
near-gale force winds extend downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec
to 10N and west to 100W. Seas are currently peaking around 12 ft
(4 M) and rough seas extend south to 02N and west to 110W. Winds
and seas will diminish as the high pressure weakens and shift
eastward in the next few days, but pulses to gale-force will
continue through across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night. Seas
will gradually subside, decreasing below 8 ft Fri night.

Large NW swell following frontal boundary: A cold front moving
into the region from the north-central Pacific, and is currently
passing 30N140W. The front will continue to move eastward across
the waters of the discussion area north of 20N into Sat. Large
NW swell in excess of 12 ft and wind speeds to near gale- force
will follow the front over the waters north of 25N from late
today into Sat. Seas are forecast to peak around 17 ft Thu. Rough
seas will reach south to 10N and the offshore waters of Baja
California late Fri into Sat. Winds and seas will diminish Sun.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 06N105W. The
ITCZ stretches from 06N105W to 09N115W to beyond 10N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 07N to 10N between
90W to 115W, and from 11N to 14N between 102W and 106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for additional
information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1018 mb high pressure system is near Guadalupe Island near
28N120W. The weak pressure gradient supports gentle to locally
moderate NW winds and moderate seas across the Baja California
offshore waters. Elsewhere outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
downstream waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the gale-force N winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will continue to pulse into Thu night. Rough to very
rough seas accompany these gales downstream. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish through late Fri as the high pressure north
of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Farther north, a cold
front will move across Baja California and the Gulf of California
late Thu through Sat. Expect fresh to strong SW gap winds across
the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front late Sat into
early Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas to 12 ft will
follow the front off Baja California late Thu into Sat, before
subsiding Sun.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region continues to dominate the
basin. The tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and
lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong
N-NE winds in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters,
captured by a scatterometer satellite pass around 16 UTC.
Farther west, a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is producing seas to 9 ft and fresh to locally strong N winds in
the waters off Guatemala beyond 60 nm.

The same high pressure system is forcing fresh to strong easterly
trade winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo area. Meanwhile,
gentle to moderate southerly breezes and moderate seas in S swell
are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse each night
and morning over the next few days across the Papagayo region as
a strong high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean. Offshore of
Guatemala, expect rough seas through Fri as gale-force gap wind
event continues in the nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will persist into the
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section regarding large NW swell
and strong to near gale-force winds following a cold front
entering the region.

East of 110W, a scatterometer satellite pass from 16 UTC showed
that a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
supporting fresh to strong NE-E winds from 07N to 13N. Seas in
these waters are 8-12 ft. Divergent flow aloft associated with an
upper trough between 105W and 110W is supporting clusters of
showers and thunderstorms from 11N to 14N between 102W and 106W.
Low level convergent flow enhanced by the outflow from the
Tehuantepec gap wind event is supporting showers and
thunderstorms along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 07N to 10N
between 90W to 115W. Meanwhile, a few showers and thunderstorms
are active on the northern end of a surface trough along 125W
from 10N to 18N. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, recent
altimeter satellite passes confirmed seas to 8 ft, primarily in
southerly swell. Farther north, a 1012 mb occluded low is
centered near 27N135W, supporting fresh winds a locally rough
seas in the vicinity. This feature is about to be overtaken by a
cold front approaching from the northwest, currently extending
from 30N135W to 26N140W. Elsewhere, weak high pressure dominates
and sustains moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast, outside of the area in the Special Features
section, the winds and seas associated with the gap wind event
will gradually dimish over the next couple of days. The large
southerly swell is subsiding below 8 ft, and will be overtaken by
northerly swell moving into the region. Moderate southerly winds
and moderate seas will then prevail south of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ into the weekend.

$$
Christensen