652
AXPZ20 KNHC 271005
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 260
nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 27/0900 UTC, moving
north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Satellite imagery indicates a faint eye feature. The imagery
shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm in the E
semicircle, 120 nm in the SW quadrant and 180 nm in the NW
quadrant. Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). A turn toward the
north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to
approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move
across the peninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern
mainland Mexico by early Tue. Additional weakening is expected
during the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a
hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon.
Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches
with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward
along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the
remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm
west of the southern tip of Baja California at 27/0900 UTC,
moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Peak seas are to near 24 ft (7 m). Odalys`s overall convective
structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped central
dense overcast. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to
strong convection within 210 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in
the SE quadrant, 60 nm in the SE quadrant and 150 nm in the
NW quadrant. Odalys will maintain its present motion through
this evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south- southeast
by early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next
few days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical
cyclone by Mon.

Newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near
12.2N 99.1W, or about 285 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico at
27/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate
to strong convection from 11N to between 96W and 102W. Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E is forecast to move parallel to and
offshore of the coast of Mexico. Some gradual strengthening is
forecast during the next few days, and the depression could
become a tropical storm by tonight.


Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
  for more details on Polo, Odalys and Tropical Depression
  Eighteen-E.

A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 nm to the east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system
should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a medium
chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across
the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across northern Costa Rica,
to 10N85W to low pres, Invest EP90, to 13.5N105W. It resumes
to the southwest of Polo at 16N118W to 10N130W to low pressure
near 12N140W 1006 mb and beyond 140W. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 83W-96W, and
also from 04N to 11N between 131W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and Invest EP90, which
has prompted Gale warnings offshore southern Mexico.

The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are
offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds
elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle
winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas dominate the
offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight
seas in the central and northern gulf sections.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or
about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is
moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with
gusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb.
Polo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N
114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near
25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N
108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed.

Hurricane Odalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of
the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving
north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85
kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will
weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move
to 22.3N 123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to
22.1N 122.7W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N
122.3W Mon evening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to
near 19.2N 122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed.

An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm
activity increases. Additional development of the system is
anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a
tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so.
This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west-
northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning has been issued for
waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting Sun afternoon in
association with this system. There is a high chance of tropical
formation of this low within the next 48 hours.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SE winds are offshore Guatemala as low
pressure, Invest EP90, organizes southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin.
Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near
the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, as low pressure organized to the west of the
area, SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and
locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through
the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to
prevail across the offshore waters well into next week along with
mostly moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys.

Outside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward
over the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it
and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters
west of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas
with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in long-period east to southeast
swell.  Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, although
a swath of fresh southwest winds have developed from 05N to 10N
and west of about 120W. The hurricanes have generated a broad
area of rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or
about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is
moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with
gusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb.
Polo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N
114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near
25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N
108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed. Hurricane
Odalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of the southern
tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 6 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will weaken to a
tropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move to 22.3N
123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 122.7W
Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N 122.3W Mon
evening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to near 19.2N
122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed.

An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm
activity increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the
next day or two as the system continues to move slowly to the
west-northwest or northwest. This motion should keep it parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning
has been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting
Sun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high
chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48
hours.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located about 1000
miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming
organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The
system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. There is a low chance of
tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance
over the next 7 days.

$$
Aguirre