055
AXPZ20 KNHC 251523
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 95W reaching southward from
the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 05N. It is moving westward at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 13N
between 92W and 97W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N92W to 10N122W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 09N to 13N
E of 92W, and from 08N to 12N between 121W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a trough W of Baja California and
higher pressure in the subtropics is leading to fresh to strong
NW winds offshore Cabo San Lucas. This weak trough, which
extends from 30N123W to 22N132W, breaks up the standard ridging
pattern over parts of the tropics, leading to light and variable
winds across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. A
tropical wave extending south from Chiapas is leading to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Tehunatepec.
Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft over open waters with components of
NW and SW swell. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are likely to pulse just
offshore Cabo San Lucas through tonight. Elsewhere a weak
gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle
breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore
waters through Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of Guatemala in association with the tropical wave. Light to
gentle winds persist across waters N of the monsoon trough, with
gentle to locally moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
in SW swell.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern over the region will
continue to support generally gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate wave heights into mid week. Looking ahead, SW
winds will increase along with building seas off Panama and
Costa Rica as broad low pressure forms over Central America.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1022 mb high pressure 39N134W
dominates the basin west of 120W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in
mixed swell, highest along the monsoon trough between 120W and
130W. Light to gentle winds prevail, except gentle to locally
moderate SW winds S of the monsoon trough and E of 100W. Looking
ahead, expect fresh winds near the monsoon trough between 130W
and 140W by Wed associated with a weak trough, otherwise little
change is expected through mid week.

$$
Konarik