818
AXPZ20 KNHC 282044
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Vance is centered near
20.1N 109.1W at 28/2100 UTC, moving north at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around
12-13 ft or 4 m. Vance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with
convection limited to the NE to E side of the system. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the NE
semicircle of Vance and 0 nm elsewhere. Vance is moving toward
the north northeast, and is forecast to continue on this track.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 h,
followed by gradual weakening. Vance is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low on Thu as it approaches the coast of
northwestern Mexico. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with
Vance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this
week. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across
central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far
northwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain.
Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of
southwestern, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of
the Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 04N98W to 09N113W to
07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 10N between 105W and 120W, from 00N to 16N
between 120W and 130W, and from 00N to 10N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
recently downgraded Tropical Depression Vance.

Fresh to strong northerly winds, and moderate seas, prevail in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds, and slight to
moderate seas, prevail in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere,
outside of Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly
moderate or weaker, with moderate seas, over the open waters off
Mexico.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Vance will move to 21.2N
108.7W Thu morning, become post-tropical and move to 22.6N 108.5W
Thu afternoon, 24.1N 108.3W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri
afternoon. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse fresh to
near gale force through early Fri, then moderate to fresh through
Sat night, then fresh to strong thereafter. A developing low
pressure and frontal system may impact the Baja California
Peninsula waters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential
for increasing winds and building seas. Moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas will prevail otherwise.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf
of Papagayo and the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas generally prevail.

For the forecast, NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of
Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the end
of the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally strong at
times this weekend. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except
mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas may briefly build to rough
in SW swell S of the Equator by the end of the week as winds
freshen there on Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Vance.

A slow moving cold front is over the far NW waters. Fresh winds
and rough seas are within 60 nm east of the front. High pressure
prevails elsewhere N of about 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting
moderate to locally fresh tradewinds from 15N to 18N and between
124W and 137W. Moderate seas are found over these waters.
Moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas are found S of 04N
between 100W and 120W. Across the remainder of the waters, winds
are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Vance will move to 21.2N
108.7W Thu morning, become post-tropical and move to 22.6N 108.5W
Thu afternoon, 24.1N 108.3W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri
afternoon. Cross equatorial SW swell will build seas to 7-10 ft
S of 04N between 105W and 128W by late tonight, while mixing with
NE swells generated by Vance. These rough seas are expected to
linger through at least Fri night, likely subsiding by the start
of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas will persist through at least mid- week. A developing low
pressure and frontal system may impact the waters N of 20N by the
end of the week into the upcoming weekend, with the potential
for increasing winds and building seas as the system shifts
eastward.

$$
AL