139
AXPZ20 KNHC 172225
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through|
UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning:
Fresh to locally strong S to SW gap winds at the northern Gulf of
California will quickly increase to between near-gale and gale-
force this evening through midnight tonight. Seas are expected to
build to around 9 ft under these winds. Conditions will improve
Mon morning with moderate winds and seas by Mon afternoon.

Significant Swell Event West of Baja California Norte:
Very large, long-period NW swell is causing very rough seas of 12
to 16 ft, north of 27N between 117W and 127W, including waters
near Guadalupe Island. This swell will continue to propagate
southward through this evening, causing very rough seas to reach
near 26N late tonight. As the NW swell gradually decays and
retreats northward Mon through Mon night, seas should subside
below 12 ft by late Mon night.

For both events above, please refer to the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from near the
coastal border of Costa Rica and Panama to 07N97W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 07N97W across 07N120W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen near and south
the monsoon trough from 02N to 12N east of 95W, including
offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near
the ITCZ from 06N to between 100W and 105W, and also between 120W
and 134W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
evident near the rest of the ITCZ from 04N to 08N west of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above regarding a Gale
Warning and Significant NW swell.

A strong, broad surface ridge near 128W continues to support
fresh to strong NW winds along with 10 to 16 ft seas in very
large, long-period NW swell near Baja California Norte, as
confirmed by the latest satellite ASCAT scatterometer and
altimeter data. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 6
to 10 ft in moderate to large NW swell exist near Baja California
Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh with locally strong S
to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the northern Gulf of
California, while gentle to moderate SE to S winds with seas of 2
to 4 ft exist for the rest of the Gulf. Mainly gentle winds and
4 to 5 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail for the offshore
waters of central and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, after the gap wind and significant swell
events, gentle to moderate winds and seas should return to the
Gulf of California by Mon afternoon, and waters west of Baja
California Peninsula by Tue afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas will dominate the rest offshore waters through
midweek.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Intertropical convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough
section above for convection in the region. Fresh NE to E gap
winds with 5 to 7 ft are found in the Papagayo region and
southwestward to near 90W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and
seas of 2 to 4 ft persist for the remaining central America
offshore waters. Gentle with locally moderate S to SW to W winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail off
Colombia, Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region
will pulse to strong, along with locally rough seas at night
through Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with
moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through midweek.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds
and heavy rain producing low visibilities, will remain over the
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through at
least Mon. At the same time, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Nicaragua.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high
located well west of California near 38N139W to just south of the
Revillagigedo Islands. This feature continues to dominate the
wind pattern north of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong NW to N winds
with 10 to 15 ft seas in very large, long-period NW swell exist
north of 25N between 120W and 131W. Mostly fresh N to NE winds
and 7 to 9 ft seas are found across the rest of the waters north
of the ITCZ. South of the ITCZ to 00N west of 120W, moderate with
locally fresh SE to E winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed
moderate swell are present. These conditions also exist from 03S
to 02N between 93W and 120W. Gentle SE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of
the waters south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge should gradually
weaken while retreating northward starting Mon afternoon. This
will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to steadily subside
from east to west through midweek, becoming gentle to moderate
winds with 6 to 8 ft seas by Thu. Winds south of the ITCZ will
also becoming gentle by Thu with higher seas at 5 to 7 ft in
mixed swells.

$$

Chan