279
ABPZ20 KNHC 161758
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Northwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure has moved inland over the western
portions of Sonora during the last few hours.  While development
chances have ended, the risk of heavy rains and flash flooding
continues to portions of Sonora and into the Southwestern deserts of
the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern
Mexico within the next few days.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development, and this system could
become a tropical depression early next week while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.  Upper-level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable
for significant development through the weekend as the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.  However, gradual development of
this system is possible early next week, and this system could
become a tropical depression when it reaches the western
portion of the east Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gallina/Blake