049
ABPZ20 KNHC 011736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located in the east Pacific basin well west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Kiko is
expected to cross into the central Pacific basin by the weekend.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
less than 150 miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico are
starting to become better organized, and recent satellite-derived
wind data indicate that winds to 35 mph are present in the
disturbance close to the coast of Mexico.  This system is expected
to become a tropical depression by the middle of the week.  This
system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at
10 to 15 mph off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
couple of days, then could turn northward and approach the Baja
California peninsula later this week.  Interests in the Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of the
disturbance, as watches or warnings could be required for portions
of this area on Tuesday.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is possible across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico today through mid-week.  Heavy rainfall is also
expected across Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico Tuesday
night through late this week.  This heavy rainfall could lead to
flash flooding, especially in mountainous areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen