628
FOPZ11 KNHC 042032
PWSEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 04 2025

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)  11(28)   1(29)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)  10(24)   1(25)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   2(18)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   8(16)   2(18)   X(18)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

15N 105W       34  5   6(11)   4(15)   2(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MANZANILLO     34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   4(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)

L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)

20N 110W       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  15(20)  66(86)   4(90)   X(90)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  50(52)   6(58)   X(58)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   4(30)   X(30)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)  10(15)  49(64)   4(68)   X(68)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   4(27)   X(27)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   2(12)   X(12)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   1(14)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   4(25)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  26(39)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)
25N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

$$
FORECASTER BERG