356
FOPZ11 KNHC 050245
PWSEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162025
0300 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   5(27)   1(28)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   6(23)   X(23)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   1(16)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   5(16)   1(17)   X(17)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

SAN BLAS       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 105W       34  8   5(13)   3(16)   X(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MANZANILLO     34  2   5( 7)   4(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)

L CARDENAS     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 110W       34  2   3( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)

20N 110W       34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)  31(40)  50(90)   1(91)   X(91)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  51(58)   1(59)   X(59)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  30(32)   X(32)   X(32)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)  22(31)  37(68)   1(69)   1(70)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   X(13)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  13(22)   2(24)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)  16(35)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)
25N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

$$
FORECASTER REINHART