668
WTPZ41 KNHC 010839
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 31 2025

Kiko remains a compact tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery shows
deep convection developing over the center with cloud top
temperatures around -80 C and curved bands wrapping into the
circulation. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB remain at 3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates range from 35
to 45 kt. A 0536 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated peak winds near 34 kt on
the northern side of the storm. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Kiko is now moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt, steered by a
mid-level subtropical ridge located to the north. This general
motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours, followed by a
more westward track through about 96 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone
should gradually turn toward the west-northwest as it crosses into
the central Pacific basin between days 4 and 5 due to a potential
weakness in the subtropical ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands.
While the overall synoptic pattern is consistent, there remains
considerable spread in the along-track speed among the models. The
NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and leans
heavily on a blend of the HCCA and EMXI aids, which lie on the
faster side of the guidance envelope.

Light vertical wind shear and modest mid-level moisture should
support strengthening during the next few days, although Kikos
forecast track keeps it near the 26 C isotherm and into a somewhat
drier environment after midweek. Based on the latest SHIPS guidance
and the cyclones small, compact core, a period of more rapid
intensification cannot be ruled out through midweek. Kiko is
forecast to become a hurricane within 36 hours and peak at 85 kt in
72 hours, which is near the higher end of the guidance envelope.
Beyond that time, any increase in latitude would likely bring the
storm over cooler waters, inhibiting any additional significant
strengthening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 14.1N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 13.9N 126.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 13.5N 129.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 13.5N 131.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 13.5N 132.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 13.6N 134.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 13.9N 138.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 14.4N 141.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)