166
WTPZ41 KNHC 212046
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Although the storm still has not become appreciably better organized
on either geostationary or microwave imagery, a recent ASCAT-C
overpass showed at least one believable wind vector of near 43 kt.
This, along with a Dvorak T-number from TAFB, supports increasing
the intensity slightly to 45 kt.  Odalys continues to produce quite
a bit of deep convection, but the highest cloud tops are not as cold
as they were earlier today, likely a diurnal fluctuation.

The forward speed has slowed somewhat and the motion estimate is
around 310/7 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is basically
unchanged from the previous couple of advisories.  A mid- to
upper-level trough is forecast to move over the Baja California
peninsula during the next day or so.  This should result in a sharp
eastward turn of Odalys tomorrow.  The tropical cyclone should then
be steered east-northeastward to northeastward by the flow between
the trough and a mid-level ridge situated between Odalys and
Hurricane Polo.  The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one and lies near the HCCA and GDMI track guidance. Some
interaction between Odalys and Polo is possible near the end or
after the forecast period.

According to the most recent Decay-SHIPS input, the vertical wind
shear is likely to remain in the light to moderate range for the
next several days.  This, along with a sufficiently warm ocean,
should allow Odalys to strengthen into a hurricane in 48 hours or
so.  Somewhat drier air could result in some weakening late in the
forecast period.  The official intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the HCCA corrected model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 14.0N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 15.0N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 15.2N 128.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 15.3N 127.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 15.7N 125.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 16.4N 124.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 17.9N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 19.8N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch