291
WTPZ41 KNHC 022039
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025

The eye of Kiko continues to gradually become better defined on
visible and infrared GOES-18 imagery.  While the TAFB and SAB Dvorak
estimates of 4.5 (77 kt) and 5.0 (90 kt) are unchanged from 6 h ago,
the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have increased, and
now range from 70-85 kt.  The latest SATCON and AiDT measurements
are both 83 kt, and the eye has continued to warm and become better
defined over the past couple of hours.  The initial intensity is
increased to 85 kt for this advisory.

Kiko continues moving slowly westward, or 270 degrees at 5 kt.  The
main steering feature continues to be the subtropical ridge located
to the north of Kiko.  A slow westward motion should continue for
the next couple of days.  A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast by days 3 and 4 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii
begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge.  There
remains above normal along-track spread in the model suite.  The
latest NHC track forecast was sped up a bit from the previous
official forecast, and is relatively close to, but slightly slower
than, the latest TVCE consensus and GFEX.

Through the next 48 h, Kiko should remain over sea-surface
temperatures of 27-28C, with light to moderate easterly wind shear,
but the relatively dry and stable environment is making the
intensity forecast tricky.  There is larger than normal spread among
the various intensity models.  Between days 3 and 4, water
temperatures along Kiko`s path will begin to decrease while it also
moves into a progressively drier air mass.  The NHC intensity
forecast continues to lie at the high end of the guidance suite
through day 3, but is now close to the middle of guidance envelope
at days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 13.9N 128.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 13.8N 129.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 13.8N 131.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 13.9N 132.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 14.1N 133.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 14.2N 135.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 15.5N 139.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 16.7N 142.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen