Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
543 WTPZ41 KNHC 040852 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Wed Sep 03 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko has degraded some since the previous advisory, with the eye now mostly obscured by a central dense overcast with cloud top temperatures of -70 to -80C. Given the favorable environment that the cyclone is traversing, it is likely that Kiko is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle at the moment. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 6.5/127 kt respectively, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 111 and 132 kt during the past several hours. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity has been held at 125 kt for this advisory, and Kiko remains a very powerful category 4 hurricane. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265 degrees, at 7 kt. This general westward motion is expected to continue through Thursday, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing over the weekend and into early next week, along with a gradual increase in forward speed. There remains some along-track and cross track spread among the global models, although the spread has decreased considerably during the past 24 hours. A very slight northward adjustment has been made to the official track forecast, which remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest multi-model consensus aids. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 2728C and influenced by mostly light vertical wind shear through around 60 hours. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal, hovering between 50 and 60 percent during the next couple of days, before dropping below 50 percent by 60 hours. Despite the somewhat dry mid-level airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should maintain Kiko as a major hurricane through day 3. There will likely be some fluctuations in strength during the next several days with the potential for eyewall replacement cycles during this time. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting below 40 percent. These factors should lead to steady and eventually rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast. Kiko will be influenced by environmental factors that can lead to the development of annular characteristics during the next few days along its approach, which can slow the rate of weakening. As a result, the official intensity forecast remains on the higher end or slightly above the intensity aids through day 5, and is very similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.7N 133.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 13.9N 134.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 15.7N 140.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 16.4N 142.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 17.8N 146.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 19.2N 151.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)