277
WTPZ41 KNHC 020852
TCDEP1

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 01 2025

The satellite presentation of Kiko has improved since the previous
advisory, with what appears to be a developing inner-core and hints
of an eye evident at times in infrared satellite images.  The most
recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were both 4.0/65 kt. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have
ranged between 53 and 71 kt during the past several hours, and have
been trending upwards.  Therefore, the initial intensity for this
advisory has been raised to 65 kt, making Kiko a category 1
hurricane.

Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt.  This general
motion is expected to continue during the next several days as the
cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and
northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by days 4
and 5 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the
western portion of the subtropical ridge.  It should be noted that
there remains considerable along-track spread among the global
models, although the GFS and ECMWF day 5 positions have come into
much better agreement since the previous model cycle.  The official
track forecast remains in good agreement with the latest multi-model
consensus aids and is very close to the previous advisory through 60
hours, then slightly to the north of the previous track forecast
from day 3 onward.

Kiko will remain over warm waters of 2728C and influenced by mostly
light vertical wind shear through day 4.  The surrounding
environmental mid-level moisture appears to be a somewhat limiting
factor for significant intensification, however, remaining between
50 and 60 percent through day 3, then trending below 50 percent by
days 4 and 5.  The latest intensity guidance has trended
significantly higher from the previous model cycle, and the official
forecast reflects this change and has been nudged upward
accordingly.  The official intensity forecast remains on the higher
end of the intensity guidance, and is most closely aligned with the
FSSE intensity consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 13.8N 127.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 13.8N 128.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 13.8N 129.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 13.8N 130.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 13.8N 131.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 14.0N 133.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 15.0N 137.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 16.0N 140.4W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)