150
WTPZ21 KNHC 051440
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162025
1500 UTC SUN OCT 05 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 107.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.7N 107.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.4N 107.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 55NE  55SE  35SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.3N 108.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  55SE  40SW  35NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.2N 109.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 111.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 65NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 112.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.2N 115.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.1N 116.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 107.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN