Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
421 WTPZ31 KNHC 060234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Priscilla Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 800 PM MST Sun Oct 05 2025 ...PRISCILLA STILL CREEPING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND THREAT CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 107.3W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case during the next day or so. Interests in southern Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Priscilla. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. Priscilla is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general motion with a bend to the northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur through the early-to-middle part of this week Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane later this week before weakening likely commences on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the southwestern coast of Mexico today into Monday. RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across coastal portions of Michoacn and far western Guerrero, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 6 inches. Across Colima, western Jalisco, and the rest of Guerrero along the coast, 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall are expected. This rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Blake