Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
534
FOPZ12 KNHC 220245
PWSEP2
HURRICANE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95
KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 44(50) 1(51) X(51)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 7(43) 1(44) X(44)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
15N 100W 34 1 19(20) 7(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 20(71)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 20(42)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 23(67)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 22(41)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN