676
FOPZ12 KNHC 230859
PWSEP2

HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2026

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)

15N 105W       34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  28(41)  14(55)   3(58)   1(59)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  10(19)   1(20)   1(21)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   8(27)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  20(42)  10(52)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   6(19)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)

L CARDENAS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  18(21)   7(28)   4(32)
L CARDENAS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
L CARDENAS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   4(16)   4(20)

10N 100W       34 97   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)

15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

ACAPULCO       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS