124
WTPZ42 KNHC 050900
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Lorena has not produced organized convection near the center for the
last 18 h, and since the center is located over sea surface
temperatures between 24-25C there is little chance that convection
will re-develop. While the latest scatterometer overpasses missed
the center, satellite intensity estimates are quickly decreasing and
are now in the 25-35 kt range.  Based on this, Lorena has
degenerated to a remnant low with winds near 30 kt.  The system
should continue to weaken over the cold water, with dissipation
forecast by 72 h.

Lorena has moved little since the last advisory. Track model
guidance indicates that the remnant low should drift northward for
the next 12 h or so, followed by a slow motion toward the northwest
and then west-northwest. The new forecast track is similar to, but a
little south of, the previous track.

While Lorena is now a remnant low, the heavy rainfall threat
continues. Abundant moisture continues to stream northeastward away
from Lorena, and a surface trough seen in scatterometer data over
the Gulf of California between Loreto and Guymas is triggering a
large area of convection at this time. Significant rainfall and
flash flooding has already occurred over portions of Baja California
Sur, and the risk of life-threatening flash flooding will continue
across portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora through today, and
southern Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday.

This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane
Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash
flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products
from the Meteorological Service of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact
Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through tonight, which will
result in areas of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
across northwest Mexico.

2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns
across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona
into Saturday.

3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect
portions of the western coast of Baja California Sur through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 24.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  05/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0600Z 25.1N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 25.4N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z 25.8N 116.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1800Z 26.1N 117.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven