538
WTPZ42 KNHC 261451
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 AM MST Sat Sep 26 2026

Infrared satellite imagery shows that the eye of Polo has become
cloud filled since the previous advisory.  This appears to be a
result of an increase in shear over the system.  The subjective
Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was unchanged from earlier,
however objective estimates have decreased and range from about
125-142 kt.  Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory has
been reduced to 135 kt, which could be slightly generous.

Some fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, however
with the gradually increasing shear, slow weakening seems to be the
more likely scenario during the next 24 to 48 hours.  After that
time, a more significant increase in southwesterly shear is expected
which is likely to cause an additional decrease in wind speed as
Polo approaches the Baja Peninsula.  The latest NHC intensity
forecast is a blend of the typically reliable HFIP corrected
consensus and Google Deep Mind aids.  Regardless of the exact
intensity forecast, Polo is expected to be a strong hurricane when
it reaches Baja California Sur.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at
9 kt.  There is once again no significant change to the track
forecast reasoning.  Polo is expected to turn northwestward later
today, and then northward on Sunday as it moves around the western
periphery of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. By Monday, a mid-level
trough approaching the west coast of the United States should cause
Polo to turn northeastward.  This motion is expected to take the
cyclone over the Baja Peninsula and into northwestern Mexico late
Monday through Tuesday.  While the track guidance is in generally
good agreement on the overall scenario, there are some large
difference in the forward speed of Polo after the northeastward
turn, which results in a large spread as to when the storm reaches
the Baja Peninsula. The NHC forecast is along the faster side of the
guidance with the typically better performing HFIP corrected
consensus aid and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean.

Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported
into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next
week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Watch is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday night or early
Monday, making further preparations difficult. A storm surge will
be possible, especially in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 17.9N 111.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 18.9N 112.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 20.5N 113.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 22.2N 114.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 23.9N 113.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 25.6N 112.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 27.4N 110.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 30.8N 106.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown