675
WTPZ42 KNHC 030854
TCDEP2

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122025
200 AM MST Wed Sep 03 2025

Satellite imagery and data from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas
indicate that Lorena continues to become better organized, with the
radar imagery showing an eyewall wrapped 50-70 percent of the way
around the center. Satellite intensity estimates are now in the
55-65 kt range, with subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB being
65 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to
65 kt and Lorena is upgraded to a hurricane.

Steady to rapid intensification is likely during the next 24 h,
and while the forecast peak intensity of 85 kt is above the upper
edge of the intensity guidance it might be conservative.  After
that time, Lorena is forecast to move over cooler sea surface
temperatures and into an area of southwesterly vertical shear.
This should cause significant weakening, and Lorena is expected to
weaken back to a tropical storm by 60 h. There is significant
uncertainty as to whether Lorena will make landfall in Baja
California Sur (see discussion below). If it does, the system
should continue weakening and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by
120 h. If it doesn`t, the cyclone should continue to weaken over
cold water, with dissipation likely west of Baja California Sur
by 120 h.

The initial motion is now 320/12 kt. The first 24 h or so of
the track forecast remain fairly straightforward, with a slower
northwestward motion expected while the cyclone moves around the
western periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico.  After
that time, Lorena will be moving into a weakness in the subtropical
ridge as it starts to encounter the less favorable environment.
The GFS model maintains a stronger and deeper Lorena and breaks open
the weakness in about 36 h, allowing the cyclone to recurve
north-northeastward into northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF and
Canadian models have a weaker Lorena and take about 12 h longer to
break open the ridge. This results in Lorena shearing apart with
the low-level center turning westward over the Pacific west of Baja
California Sur. Based on current intensity trends, the track
forecast leans toward the GFS solution and shows Lorena crossing
Baja California Sur in 60-72 h. However, there is still the
possibility that the cyclone does not reach the coast of Mexico. The
new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies along
the east side of the consensus models.


Key Messages:

1.  Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lorena will
continue to impact Baja California Sur, moving into southeastern
Baja California and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, and contribute
to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona late Wednesday through
Friday. This will increase the risk of life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides across Mexico, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible
across Arizona through Friday.

2. Although rapid intensification is possible through tonight while
Lorena is offshore, the storm is expected to weaken while it
approaches the Baja California peninsula on Thursday and Thursday
night. Regardless, tropical storm conditions are likely along
portions of the coast of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued.  Tropical Storm conditions are also
possible through Friday along other portions of the west coast of
Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 21.2N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 22.2N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 23.2N 113.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 24.2N 113.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 25.3N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 26.4N 113.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 27.4N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven