Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
364 WTPZ42 KNHC 031432 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Sun Aug 03 2025 Cool waters combined with a drier and more stable environment have taken their toll on Gil. The system has been devoid of deep convection overnight, with only an exposed swirl of low- to mid-level clouds remaining. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. Given the cool waters, dry and stable air, and strengthening west-southwesterly shear, no new organized convection is expected. Therefore, this will be the final advisory on the system as it has become post-tropical. Gil is expected to dissipate around midweek as it opens into a trough northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion is estimated at 285/16 kt. The system is being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north, and this general motion is expected to continue into tonight. A gradual decrease in forward speed is anticipated by Monday, followed by a turn toward the west as the shallow remnant low becomes steered by the low-level flow. The updated track forecast remains close to the previous advisory and continues to follow the tightly clustered guidance envelope. For additional information on the post-tropical low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/0000Z 21.2N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1200Z 21.7N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 21.9N 143.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 22.0N 146.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z 22.3N 149.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 22.8N 151.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)