388
WTPZ22 KNHC 212049
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172026
2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.9N 102.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.9N 102.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.4N 102.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 102.9W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.7N 105.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.5N 111.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 102.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE