977
WTPZ32 KNHC 270244
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND POLO IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 113.1W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
west coast of Baja California Sur from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
east coast of Baja California Sur from Bahia San Juan Bautista to
San Evaristo.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to
Santa Fe.

A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Eugenia to
Punta Abreojos.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of Baja California Sur, from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in portions of northwestern mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Polo.  Additional watches will likely be
required for the Sonora Coast tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 113.1 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A northward turn is expected on
Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the
forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja
California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday night and
then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds as measured by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, but Polo
is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches Baja California
Sur on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of
the warning area by Sunday night into early Monday. These
conditions are expected to spread northward during the day on
Monday and then eastward across Baja California Sur by Monday
evening.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will also
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky