878
WTPZ32 KNHC 281746
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
1100 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING POLO...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 113.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case later this afternoon
into Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed or rushed to completion shortly.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case over the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located by
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.5 North, longitude
113.5 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph
(17 km/h) and this motion with gradual acceleration is expected this
afternoon through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Polo
is expected to make landfall along the west coast of Baja California
Sur this evening, then move inland into southern Sonora on Tuesday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today.
However, Polo is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when
it reaches Baja California Sur this evening, and is expected to be a
hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico early Tuesday
morning. Rapid weakening is expected after Polo moves farther
inland into mainland Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). Recently, a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was observed in
Puerto Cortes, Mexico.

The minimum central pressure measured by aircraft dropsonde data is
964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late this afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions already occuring in the southern
portion of the warning area. These conditions are expected to spread
northward and eastward across Baja California Sur this afternoon
and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and are possible in the watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico early Tuesday with tropical storm conditions
expected to begin tonight.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin