Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
706 WTPZ32 KNHC 022340 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 500 PM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 ...LORENA STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 109.2W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West Coast of Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas northward to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches may be required later tonight or on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 109.2 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Wednesday night. A generally northward motion, with an additional decrease in forward speed, is forecast Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is likely to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday and then could approach the coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall well east and northeast of Lorena will continue to impact portions of northwestern Mexico from the states of Colima to Sinaloa today, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected to begin impacting Baja California Sur by Wednesday and southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur and southwestern Sonora through Friday. Uncertainty remains with these totals, and locally higher or lower amounts are possible depending on the track and strength of the system. Potentially significant flash flooding is a possibility. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg