690
WTPZ32 KNHC 291431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
800 AM MST Thu Oct 29 2026

...FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT CONTINUES FOR MEXICO DUE TO VANCE...
...MOISTURE FROM VANCE WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 108.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the
progress of Vance.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 108.8 West. Vance is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue until Vance dissipates tonight or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Vance is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through tonight, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern
Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals
over 5 inches possible across central and southern Sinaloa. This
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
along steep terrain.

Moisture carried northeastward from Vance combined with other
Pacific moisture will begin to produce heavy rainfall across the
U.S. Southern Plains and New Mexico today into Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf.

SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern
portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the next day or
so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen