167
WTPZ43 KNHC 041443
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Deep convection is concentrated south and east of a ragged eye,
while dry air continues to wrap around the northern and western
portions of the circulation. A recent GPM GMI microwave pass showed
a slightly elongated eye along with erosion of the western eyewall.
The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 5.0/90 kt, while
remotely-sensed estimates span a broader range of 69-96 kt. The
initial intensity is maintained at 85 kt for this advisory.

Marie is moving toward the west-northwest around 8 kt, and is
flanked by a weak mid-level ridge to the west and a strong closed
low moving into the Pacific Northwest. The hurricane is expected to
continue on this heading through tonight before the ridge weakens
and the low digs southeastward over California, causing Marie to
turn northwestward. Little change has been made to the previous
forecast through days 3-4. After day 4, the weakening cyclone is
expected to become increasingly steered by the low- to mid-level
environmental flow and remain well offshore over the eastern
Pacific. The official track forecast has been shifted to the right
of the previous advisory beyond day 4, toward the latest Google
DeepMind and corrected consensus (HCCA) guidance.

Despite moving over warm waters and through an environment of low
wind shear, Marie is contending with relatively dry mid-level air,
which is likely limiting significant strengthening. Similar
environmental conditions are expected through tonight, supporting
little change in intensity. Beginning Saturday, Marie is forecast to
encounter increasingly dry low- and mid-level air along with cooler
sea surface temperatures, resulting in gradual weakening. More
substantial weakening is expected next week as the hurricane moves
into increasingly unfavorable conditions. The official forecast is
close to the intensity model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 20.1N 117.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 20.7N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 21.5N 120.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 22.3N 121.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 24.5N 123.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 25.9N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 28.5N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Adams