492
WTPZ43 KNHC 080849
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026

The satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade as the
cyclone continues to weaken. What is the left of the deep convection
is very minimal and limited to the southeastern quadrant of the
storm. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix came in at T2.5/35 kt, and the
objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of
30-44 kt. The most recent scatterometer pass showed that there are
still some 35-kt winds and given that this pass only partially
captured the storm, there could still be some stronger winds.
Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this
advisory.

The storm continues its slow west-northwestward trek with an initial
motion estimate of around 300/7 kt. Marie is expected to turn more
northwestward and move within the flow between a ridge extending
westward from the southwestern U.S. and a cutoff low to the west of
the tropical cyclone. The current NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous forecast track, and is close to the corrected model
consensus.

Marie is expected to move over cooler waters for the next day or so,
and based on the decreasing convection, it seems likely that the
storm will become post-tropical within the next 24 h. Unless deep
convection is able to return to the cyclone soon, Marie`s
post-tropical transition could occur even earlier than the official
forecast. The current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the
previous intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 25.5N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 26.3N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 27.9N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/1800Z 29.8N 129.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0600Z 32.1N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Gibbs