120
WTPZ43 KNHC 030836
TCDEP3

Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 AM MST Sat Oct 03 2026

Rachel has become less organized during the past several hours. The
associated convection is now occurring only over the southern
semicircle, and the latest microwave imagery indicates that there
is no longer any eyewall.  Satellite intensity estimates are in the
70-90 kt range and are trending downward. Based on the trend, the
initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt.

The initial motion is 275/4 kt. A mid-level anticyclone over the
western United States has a ridge extending southwest to the west
of Rachel, and this anticyclone is expected to build westward
during the next 72 h. This evolution should steer the cyclone
slowly west-northwestward for the next day or two, followed by a
more westward motion. By 96-120 h, a west-northwestward motion is
likely to resume as Rachel approaches the western end of the ridge.
The new forecast track is close to the previous forecast for 48-60
h, and then is nudged a little south based on a southward shift in
the guidance envelope.

Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 h as
Rachel continues to experience northeasterly shear and crosses the
cold water wake of Hurricane Polo. After that, the sea surface
temperatures increase slightly at a time where the hurricane is
likely to entrain dry air. These competing factors are expected to
result in little net change in strength between 36-72 h.  After 72
h, Rachel should move over progressively colder water and continue
to entrain dry air, which should cause a steady weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 19.4N 111.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 19.6N 112.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 19.9N 113.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 20.1N 114.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 20.2N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 20.4N 116.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 20.6N 118.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 21.2N 121.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 22.2N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven