406
WTPZ43 KNHC 152042
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

Hernan continues to remain a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with
no active deep convection. A recent ASCAT pass showed that the winds
are around 20 to 25 kts at most in the northern portion of the
cyclone. As a result of that, the initial intensity has been lowered
to 25 kt.

Given that the cyclone is moving into an area of higher shear and
drier air, gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of
days. The current forecast calls for Hernan to become a trough in
about 60 h in agreement with the global models.

The initial motion is 255/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north should steer Hernan and its remnants westward for the next
few days. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster
than, the previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 15.8N 135.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  16/0600Z 15.9N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1800Z 16.1N 139.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0600Z 16.4N 141.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z 16.5N 143.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg