393
WTPZ43 KNHC 062036
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to gradually lose
convective organization. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from
TAFB is 65 kt, and objective intensity estimates have fallen to the
55-62 range. A 1734 UTC partial ASCAT-B overpass shows some 50-kt
vectors in the eastern semicircle.  The initial intensity is lowered
to a possibly generous 65 kt for this advisory.

Marie is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion
estimate of 315/6 kt.  A bend more to the west-northwest is expected
tonight as the mid- to upper-level trough north of Marie currently
causing the northwestward motion moves eastward on Monday and
loosens its grip on Marie.  Then, another mid- to upper-level low
will strengthen over the Pacific to the northwest of Marie, causing
a turn back toward the northwest, or possibly north-northwest on
Tuesday.  The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one
and closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google
DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI).  Based on the spread in the guidance,
confidence in the track forecast is near average.

Marie is traveling over 25 C sea-surface temperatures and through a
dry airmass.  The cyclone will continue moving over progressively
cooler water and into a progressively drier airmass over the next
couple of days.  Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast.
Although vertical wind shear is weak right now, southwesterly shear
is forecast to increase in 36-48 h as Marie approaches the
aforementioned mid- to upper-level low to its northwest.  Little to
no change has been made to the previous NHC intensity forecast.
This forecast lies near the higher end of the guidance suite.  Marie
is now forecast to lose it`s convection and become a post-tropical
remnant low by day 3 (Wednesday).  After the system becomes
post-tropical, global models show it weakening and dissipating in 4
to 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 24.0N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 24.4N 123.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 25.0N 124.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 25.6N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 26.7N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 28.6N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 30.7N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1800Z 34.6N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen