518
WTPZ43 KNHC 070849
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Marie continues show signs of gradual weakening via satellite
imagery. Based on the infrared satellite imagery, the convection
continues to wane and water vapor shows that the dry air continues
to intrude into the center of the storm. A partial ASCAT pass from
METOP-C showed that the winds on the western side of the storm are
limited to about 100 nm and some of the strongest wind speeds were
around 45 kt. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix came in at T3.5/55 kt,
while the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the range of
39-57 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt
for this advisory.

The storm is moving slowly northwestward. A general northwestward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the
next few days as Marie moves into a weakness in the subtropical
ridge toward a mid- to upper-level low. Only minor adjustments have
been made to the current NHC track forecast compared to the
previous forecast and aligns with the HCCA and GDMI models.

Steady weakening is expected to continue as Marie moves over
progressively cooler waters and into an even drier air mass over the
next few days. In addition, southwesterly vertical wind shear is
anticipated to notably increase beginning Tuesday. The combination
of these factors should lead to cyclone degenerating into a remnant
low, which is still predicted to occur by 60 hours. However, it is
possible that this could occur sooner as the GFS simulated satellite
imagery has Marie becoming post-tropical at an earlier time. The
current NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is
in line with most of the model guidance.

While Marie is well away from land, large swells from the
storm have been affecting portions of the coast of the Baja
California Peninsula and southern California. These conditions
will likely continue to cause dangerous beach conditions over the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 24.4N 123.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 24.8N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 25.4N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 26.5N 126.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 28.2N 127.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 30.4N 129.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0600Z 32.4N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0600Z 36.0N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven