480
WTPZ43 KNHC 282040
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
300 PM CST Mon Sep 28 2026

Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that Rachel remains a
sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center located near the
northern edge of the main convective mass. This is consistent with
shear analyses showing 20-25 kt of northeasterly shear. The various
satellite intensity estimates are now generally clustered near 45
kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory.

The initial motion is now faster toward the west-northwest or  300/9
kt.  For the next 60 h or so, Rachel is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward or northwestward on the southwest side of a
mid-level ridge over Mexico.  After that, the ridge weakens and
shifts southeastward in response to a mid-latitude trough moving
across the southern United States. This evolution should result in
Rachel being left in an area of weaker steering currents causing a
slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion. The track
guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario and keeps
the center well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. The
new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast from 12-24 h
and after 72h. However, it has been shifted a little northeastward
from 36-72 h to lie closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and
Google DeepMind forecasts.

The current northeasterly shear is still forecast to diminish a
little after 24 h. However, the dynamical models are in good
agreement that moderate shear is likely to continue through at least
96 h. Even with the forecast shear, the intensity guidance shows
gradual strengthening.  The new intensity forecast has minor
reductions in intensity at 72 and 96 h to better match the guidance,
but is otherwise unchanged from the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico, tropical storm force winds are expected along a portion of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area
on Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along a portion
of the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Watch area
Tuesday night or on Wednesday.

2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall
may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 14.2N 102.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 14.8N 103.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 15.9N 104.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 17.2N 106.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 18.3N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 19.0N 108.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 19.5N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 19.9N 109.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 20.4N 110.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven