Tropical Cyclone Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
726 WTPZ43 KNHC 071433 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026 Latest satellite imagery shows little change in Marie`s structure over the last several hours. Convection can be seen flaring up across the western and southern semicircles, with drier air evident within the storm`s northern half. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 55 kt, while objective estimates from CIMSS range from 45-53 kt. Given the lack of significant change in Marie`s satellite presentation, the initial intensity estimate was held steady at 55 kt. The initial motion estimate was 300/6 kt. Marie is forecast to continue to move west-northwestward over the next 24 hours before a cutoff low from the northeast Pacific is expected to shift the storm`s motion more northwestward. Guidance has generally favored a slight rightward shift in Marie`s track beyond day 2 due to this anticipated interaction with the cutoff low, so the latest NHC track forecast reflects this, following a blend of HCCA, GDMI, and the previous track forecast. With Marie moving over cooler SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear, steady weakening is expected over the next couple of days. Marie is forecast to become post-tropical on Wednesday, before dissipating shortly thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast reflects a sharper weakening trend over the next 24 hours, before becoming more gradual Tuesday into Wednesday. This generally follows the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 24.7N 124.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 25.1N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 25.9N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 27.4N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 29.3N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 31.6N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 33.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen