Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
192 WTPZ33 KNHC 300234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026 ...RACHEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 106.6W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 12-24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 106.6 West. Rachel is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is forecast to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the coast of southwestern Mexico through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane later tonight or early Wednesday and a major hurricane by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The Manzanillo International Airport (MMZO) recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later tonight into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacn, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart