513
WTPZ44 KNHC 300837
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192026
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Apart from some intermittent bursts of deep convection north and
east of the center, Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is all but devoid
of convection. Visible satellite imagery continues to depict a
closed circulation, albeit slightly elongated. A 0531 UTC METOP-C
scatterometer pass confirmed an elongated circulation, with peak
winds of around 20 kt surrounding the center. The latest TAFB Dvorak
fix was T2.0/30 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial
intensity is held at 25 kt.

The initial motion has shifted slightly east-southeastward, now at
110/08 kt. The depression is expected to maintain a generally
east-southeastward path, with slight wobbles in its track, as it is
steered by a northward-displaced monsoon trough. The updated NHC
track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory,
roughly in between the simple (TVCN) and corrected consensus (HCCA)
aids.

Nineteen-E is forecast to remain in a relatively hostile environment
marked by moderate vertical wind shear within a moisture-starved
environment. The depression is anticipated to degenerate into a
post-tropical remnant low within 36 h, but given how little
convection has persisted over the last several hours, it is very
possible that this transition could occur sooner. The biggest source
of uncertainty in the forecast is the degree to which diurnally
enhanced convection will occur, if at all. The latest intensity
forecast keeps the depression`s strength steady through the forecast
period, following the middle of the model envelope, with dissipation
still expected to occur within 60 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 13.6N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 14.1N 127.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 14.5N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 14.7N 124.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0600Z 14.7N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Roberts