040
WTPZ44 KNHC 140255
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025

The satellite presentation of Dalila has improved a bit this
evening, with the latest images showing an increase in deep
convection around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 knots, while
the objective estimates ranged from 32 to 40 knots. Based on a blend
of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 knots for
this advisory.

Dalila is now heading toward the northwest, or 315/10 knots. This
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as
the system moves along the southern periphery of a building
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A
gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night and Sunday,
as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered
by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast
to continue through dissipation on Tuesday, and this may be generous
as Dalila may not survive that long. The latest track forecast has
been nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, in line with
the latest consensus model trends.

There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain
over warm water and within light to moderate easterly shear for
around 24 hours. The forecast calls for some strengthening during
this time, but the peak intensity has been nudged slightly lower to
better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beyond 36
hours, the system will move over much cooler water, and steady
weakening is forecast with Dalila expected to become a post-tropical
remnant low by 60 hours, and possibly sooner than that. The latest
intensity forecast is generally on the high end of the intensity
guidance through 36 hours, then is roughly in the middle of the pack
through storm dissipation.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacn, and Colima
through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides
are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 15.2N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart