354
WTPZ44 KNHC 151434
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025

Dalila`s satellite appearance has degraded since the previous
advisory. Cloud tops have been warming, and what convection remains
is displaced to the southwest. First-light visible imagery showed
that the system has decoupled with the low-level center exposed due
to moderate northeasterly wind shear. Given the current satellite
presentation, subjective and objective intensity estimates have
started to drop-off, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt
for this advisory.

Dalila is moving towards the west-northwest, at an estimated 295/8
kt. As Dalila continues to weaken and becomes a shallower vortex, a
turn towards the west is expected within the low-level wind flow.
The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, near the
consensus aids.

The storm will continue to weaken today within a cooler SSTs and a
drier, more stable environment. Dalila is already struggling to
produce convection and should become a post-tropical cyclone later
tonight. The latest intensity forecast shows steady weakening and
the system dissipating in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 18.2N 107.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly