


Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
658 FOPZ15 KNHC 060236 PWSEP5 HURRICANE OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025 0300 UTC MON OCT 06 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 2 22(24) 22(46) 3(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI